If you’re reading this, you have at least a fleeting interest in politics, so chances are you have heard of or visited the CBC Vote Compass website. More than a million Canadians did, and more than 300,000 went through all of its 30 questions on the issues that define Canadian politics today.
Some commentators have questioned the methods, and some users have been shocked to discover that the Compass’s model predicted they would vote differently than they intended. But these criticisms pale in comparison to the insights that can be gained from this enormous opinion-gathering exercise.
Although huge, this self-selected sample is not necessarily representative of the population. Its observations ought to be taken with a grain of salt, but they shouldn’t be ignored.
When one looks at maps showing the distribution of results across 308 federal ridings, the first thing that jumps out of the screen for about 25 of the 30 questions is the distinct difference between Quebec and the rest of the country.
There is little new about the story of the “two solitudes” in Canada, but in the brave new world of polarized federal politics, this peculiar distribution of opinion reveals significant risks.
The first is the exacerbation of political conflict between Quebec and the Rest of Canada (ROC) as a majority Harper government implements a sharply ideological conservative agenda that is alien to Quebecers.
With a few notable exceptions, on the social or economic choices that define the left-right axis, the Compass map places Quebec squarely to the left of the ROC.
On issues where there are clear differences between Quebec and the ROC, the pursuit of a doctrinaire conservative agenda by a majority government could potentially deepen the rift between Canada and Quebec.
Prime Minister Harper claimed earlier this week that his party’s values are Canada’s values. If Quebecers clearly reject these values, it doesn’t augur well for federalism.
In the long run, a reshaped Canada that moves further away from Quebec’s deep-seated preferences is bound to provide grist for the sovereignists’ mill.
On constitutional, linguistic and cultural issues, the Vote Compass confirms the ROC will not be receptive to Quebec’s preferences, regardless of promises made by Jack Layton during his courtship of Quebec voters.
But the depth of the rift between Quebec and the ROC on constitutional issues is not the only source of potential trouble for the NDP.
Among the ideas that define bedrock NDP support, two are unavoidable: free trade with the United States is bad, and public health care is a sacred cow.
Since 1988, while opposition to continental free trade has remained an article of faith for the NDP, support for it has consistently remained higher in Quebec than in the rest of the country.
Except for the left fringe, all political parties in Quebec, including the Bloc, have consistently pushed for more trade with the United States. Going along with the big players of “Québec Inc.,” Quebec unions stopped opposing free trade long ago.
The map for this question is eloquent. The 10 ridings most supportive of freer trade with the United States are all in Quebec, five of which voted NDP on May 2, while eight of the 10 ridings most opposed to free trade in the rest of the country went to the NDP.
Can the NDP claim to represent Quebec’s interests if it vows to roll back free trade? I find it hard to imagine the NDP reversing its historical position on free trade to please its new voters in Quebec, where the NDP’s strident opposition to free trade in the name of Canadian nationalism is likely to fall flat.
On health care, Quebec also seems to distance itself from the NDP line. When asked if there should be more or less of a role for the private sector in health care, Quebecers were significantly more willing than other Canadians to say yes.
As numerous polls have shown in the past, Quebecers support public health care, but they are consistently — and, in this writer’s opinion, unwisely — willing to seek private-sector or market remedies to their system’s ailments.
Will Layton be able to reconvert these straying Quebecers to his party’s mantra on health care? Good luck, Jack.
There are plenty of issues on which the Tories will be exploiting differences between Quebec and the ROC to divide the NDP caucus, like the long-gun registry, to give just one of many examples.
So far, results released by the Vote Compass only scratch the surface of what it will potentially reveal about the complexities and pitfalls of the emerging Canadian political landscape.
We number-crunchers are anxiously waiting for more.
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Pierre Martin is a professor of political science at the Université de Montréal.