By Licia Corbella - The almost total demise of the Bloc Quebecois is both satisfying and worrisome for Canada.
The great irony about the federal separatist party being reduced to four seats in last Monday's general election from 47 at dissolution of Parliament, is it may help give rise to renewed separatist sentiment in Quebec in the long run and spur on yet another divisive, destabilizing referendum on sovereignty.
On the one hand, the Bloc's fall helped bring four years of stability to the federal scene by aiding the Conservatives in winning a majority mandate. After all, it was virtually impossible for any party to win a majority as long as the Bloc won 40 or more seats in each federal election since it was formed some 20 years ago.
But at least the Bloc provided Quebecers with a sense that their grievances were being addressed and that their distinctiveness was fully embodied and recognizable to the rest of Canada and the world by having an official party in the House of Commons pushing for nationhood for the Quebecois.
That has now disappeared and that will eventually play directly into the hands of Quebec separatists.
The incredible rise of Jack Layton's popularity in Quebec -after he seemingly promised la belle province the moon and then some -garnered the NDP 58 of the available 75 seats in that province.
Layton vowed to reopen the constitution, give Quebec City's mayor a whopping $25 billion in goodies, including a high-speed rail line between Quebec and Windsor, Ont., a tramway and a professional NHL hockey rink. Layton also spread the outrageous lie that Quebecers are subsidizing the oilsands, when the exact opposite is true, and despite his eloquence and passion, Quebecers will soon recognize that Layton will not be able to deliver on any of his promises.
Quebec separatists will exploit that reality and be able to eventually say, "you see, this is what happens when you vote for a federalist party, you get nothing in return."
Antonia Maioni, associate professor of political science at McGill University in Montreal, agrees that in the long term "there are all kinds of risks" hidden in the fall of the Bloc.
"A lot of Jack Layton's votes were not just from federalists, but also from sovereigntists," Maioni said Tuesday. "There's been a lot of debate within the sovereigntist movement about whether it's even a good idea to have a separatist party in Ottawa," she added.
Why? Because having the Bloc in the nation's capital quelled the feelings of dissatisfaction that are so necessary for separatist sentiment to grow from a spark to a flame.
Last Tuesday, on the morning after his majority win, Prime Minister Stephen Harper told a packed media conference at Calgary's Hyatt Regency Hotel that he takes some of the recognition for Quebecers voting for federalists Monday night.
"I do think that we do deserve some of the credit for that in terms of the wider interest of the country and I'm encouraged that the shift is towards federalism," said Harper, who won 167 seats out of a possible 308, giving him his much coveted majority on his fourth try as Conservative party leader.
"Harper is just putting a good political spin on the results," answered Maioni.
"And when you look at it on paper, that's what it says, that the sovereigntist party has lost its official party status in Quebec, so in the short term Harper can go ahead and crow but in the long term I think there has to be more serious analysis of what's next.
"The sovereigntist core is still there in Quebec. It's not because people vote for Jack Layton that they suddenly become born-again federalists."
What's more, a federalist separatist party couldn't call for a referendum anyway. That must be accomplished by a provincial separatist government, the Parti Quebecois, which is now polling ahead of the beleaguered provincial Liberal party led by Premier Jean Charest.
The other fear now for Quebecers is if the Bloc does indeed disappear, then Harper and other federal leaders will realize that they don't need Quebec any more to win a majority, said Maioni.
"The old idea to use Quebec as the fertile ground from which to grow a majority -either Liberal or Conservative -those days are over. Now it remains to be seen whether Harper has written off Quebec or whether he wants to do something to make more inroads into Quebec."
Many in the rest of Canada think Harper did plenty to woo Quebec and his thanks was fewer seats than he won in 2006.
In his victory speech at the Telus Convention Centre, Harper addressed that concern. "For our part, we are intensely aware that we are, and must be, the government of all Canadians, including those who did not vote for us."
If history is any guide, the orange crush Quebecers have displayed towards Layton likely won't last beyond one or two elections. In the meantime, if the Parti Quebecois wins the next provincial election, Layton's inability to fulfil his many promises just may bring Canada to the brink again.