Palestinian Statehood Bid: What Happens Next?

Actualités internationales - Palestine à l'ONU


Tim Marshall, foreign affairs editor, in Jerusalem - Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas was filmed handing over his application for UN membership - but what the cameras didn't show was secretary-general Ban Ki-Moon pocketing it and walking off to bury it in a deep filing cabinet for several months.

He can cover it with a Quartet statement - which appears to be an attempt at delaying the US veto at the Security Council if it ever comes to a vote on statehood.
The statement calls on the Palestinians and Israelis to hold a "preparatory meeting" within a month.
This meeting is intended to "agree an agenda and method of proceeding" and therein is the first problem.

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The time has come for our men, women and children to live normal lives; for them to be able to sleep without waiting for the worst that the next day will bring.
Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas
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There is no reason to expect either side to agree on an agenda.
For example - Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu might want item one on the agenda to be security and proceed on the basis that Israel would have to control the Jordan valley to guard against weapon smuggling.
Mr Abbas would not agree, at which point the Israelis would say the Palestinians had collapsed the talks.
Conversely - he might want item one to be about borders and proceed on the basis that they would discuss borders based on the 1967 lines.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas hands over a formal letter for Palestine to be admitted as a state to the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon during the 66th UN General Assembly at the United Nations headquarters in New York, September 23, 2011.
Mr Abbas delivered the letter to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon
Mr Netanyahu would not agree to that - and the Palestinians would say the Israelis were refusing to negotiate.
They may get past the first obstacle, but there appears to be little in the Quartet plan which makes advancing to a "final status agreement" within a year likely.
If that is the case, then consequences will flow.
The vote on the UN could be forced, triggering the US veto, which in turn would very likely lead to violence in the West Bank and Israel - and possibly against US interests in the wider region.


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