- The decline and fall of the American middle class

The heart of our political malaise is that the middle class, so long a powerhouse of US prosperity, is being crushed as never before
Consumer Hourglass Theory
The Consumer Hourglass Theory has been coined by Citibank to describe the new corporate strategy of marketing to high- and low-income earners but ignoring the squeezed middle. Image: Corbis
No one can accuse the candidates on stage at Monday's Republican debate of not discussing a broad range of topics. They talked about big issues like social security, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, energy independence, repealing healthcare reform and the need for job creation. And they talked about small issues for political point-scoring: like HPV vaccines for girls.
But missing from the debate – and, in fact, much current discussion of America's politics – is the single biggest issue facing the country: the destruction of the American middle class. For stories on how America is bifurcating into haves and have-nots, with precious little in between, you have to dive behind the headlines of the latest Washington political bun-fight and find the devil in the details.
Take a story that appeared in the Wall Street Journal Monday. The tale is nominally one about marketing strategy and it looks at how giant firm Procter & Gamble sells its household goods to its customers. But the picture that emerges is terrifying. P&G, it transpires, is cutting back on marketing to the disappearing middle classes, instead selling more and more to either high-income or low-income customers and abandoning the middle. Other big firms, like Heinz, are following suit. The piece reveals there is even a word for this strategy, helpfully coined by Citibank: the Consumer Hourglass Theory – because it denotes a society that bulges at the top and bottom and is squeezed in the middle.
The story contains some scary figures, such as the fact that the net worth of the middle fifth of American households has plunged by 26% in the last two years. Or that the income of the median American family, adjusted for inflation, is lower now than in 1998.
Or look at a story in the New York Times Tuesday. It starkly shows how the plight of the American working person has worsened. Solid jobs that once provided a secure grasp on middle class aims (a house, college for the kids, a retirement) have changed to become low-wage ones. It looks at the situation of some Detroit auto-workers, pointing out that new hires can find themselves working opposite long-term colleagues who do similar jobs yet earn twice as much. The system is called a "two tier" wage structure.
Perhaps that system can be justified as an emergency measure to keep Detroit's auto-industry alive and help it survive the current tough times. But, like the Consumer Hourglass Theory, it actually looks far more like the permanent shape of things to come. American society is bifurcating, squeezing the middle class out of existence. The ranks of the poor and low-income earners are growing and the rich are doing just fine – and no one is talking about it, much less doing anything about it.
The black-and-white facts of the case should stun Americans on both sides of the political divide. At the start of this week, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders published a report on poverty called "Is Poverty a Death Sentence?" It showed that in 313 counties in America, life expectancy for women has actually declined over the last 20 years. It showed six million more people have fallen into poverty since 2004.
Indeed, this week the US Census Bureau has released a survey showing that one in six Americans now live in poverty: the highest number ever reported by the organisation. It also showed that real median household incomes dropped 2.3% in 2010 from the year before, reflecting the decline of the middle class. At the same time, the richest 20% of the US population now controls 84% of the wealth. In fact, so staggeringly unbalanced has America become that the richest 400 American families have the same net worth as the bottom 50% of the nation.
I do not care if you are a Tea Party activist or a Socialist party USA organiser, you should be able to agree on one thing, at least: this is unsustainable. Something has to give. But no one in the current political system looks they have an answer.



- IMF predicts global recession when Greece defaults


With markets predicting a near 100 per cent certainty of Greece defaulting on its sovereign debt the warning from the International Monetary Fund that this will precipitate a crisis that will put the world back in recession is sobering but hardly a revelation.
Yesterday the IMF lowered its growth targets for all the major economies but said this assumed ‘business as usual’ with no default by Greece and President Obama’s $447 billion stimulus package being approved. Neither proposition is realistic: markets have Greece down for a default; and President Obama’s package will not emerge unscathed from Congress.
Recession distinct possibility
Even the understandably carefully worded IMF statement conceded the worst scenario was a ‘distinct possibility’. What else can you say in the face of the blindingly obvious that you wish was not true?
The IMF’s ‘downside scenario’ has the Greek sovereign debt crisis spreading to other eurozone nations. Yesterday Italian debt was downgraded by S&P, and the Portuguese Prime Minister warned his country will need help if Greece defaults along with Ireland.
Under the worst scenario there will be a systemic shock to eurozone banks leading to higher bad debts in the US and Asia and a slowdown in the global economy and ‘the US and the euro area would fall back into recession, with output in 2012 more than three per cent below projections’.
Calling on Europe to ‘get its act together’ the IMF urged policymakers to deal with the banking crisis by ‘injecting new capital and restructuring weak but viable banks while closing others…and injecting public funds’.
Indeed the IMF prescription sounds more like a capitulation than a solution.
The broad sweep is to advise backing off from government cutbacks until economic growth rates improve and printing more money to throw into the system.
This is certainly not the sort of remedy the IMF would have proposed for mismanaged economies in the past. The contrast with its approach to the Asian Financial Crisis of the late 90s is stark. Then it bankrupted overstretched companies and individuals to knock back indebtedness with a fiscal squeeze and left countries to struggle. It was painful but worked.
Muddling through
Will the industrialized nations choose the alternative course now being suggested to them by the IMF? Most likely we will get some sort of corrupted version of the same script with political meddling stamped all over it. That seems unlikely to avoid the recession or eurozone banking crisis, and it risks fuelling up a bubble in government bonds in the smaller and small number of nations able to issue them at low coupons.
The IMF report does not even dare consider this, although past global financial crises have often climaxed with a crash in the bond markets. For unsustainable debts generally result in bankruptcy for the debtor and much higher interest rates for everybody else.
Will it be any different this time? Probably not and it is about time that IMF economists started to look further ahead that 15 months into the future. Where is this crisis taking us?


- La colère gronde de plus en plus fort en Grèce


Par Alexia Kefalas
Une manifestation d'enseignants et d'étudiants, jeudi, dans le centre d'Athènes.Crédits photo : LOUISA GOULIAMAKI/AFP
Le premier ministre appelle les Grecs à faire un effort supplémentaire pour justifier les nouvelles mesures d'austérité du gouvernement, mais la fronde sociale s'amplifie dans le pays.
Le premier ministre Georges Papandréou a, jeudi, une nouvelle fois, appelé les Grecs à «faire encore un effort». Au Parlement où il rencontrait les députés de la région des îles ioniennes et de la Crête, il a reconnu que «dans un climat international très dur et défavorable» il était inévitable de donner un nouveau tour de vis pour «garantir les décisions importantes du 21 juillet qui accordent à la Grèce un nouveau paquet de sauvetage et allègent la dette».
Mais deux jours après l'annonce des nouvelles mesures d'austérité, les Grecs accusent difficilement le coup. Pour pouvoir obtenir le sixième versement du prêt des 110 milliards d'euros, soit 8 milliards d'euros, le gouvernement a du s'en prendre cette fois-ci directement aux foyers : réduction de 20 % sur les retraites supérieures à 1200 euros par mois, 30.000 fonctionnaires placés en chômage technique et abaissement du seuil de non-imposition à 5000 euros par an.
Pour Thanassis, enseignant au collège, la situation est devenue intenable. «Depuis dix-huit mois, on se réveille tous les matins, avec une boule au ventre en attendant le prochain couperet», déplore-t-il. Jusqu'à présent, Thanassis ne participait pas aux mouvements de grève, mais, cette fois, il est à bout : «Mon épouse ne gagne que 400 euros par mois et devra à présent être imposée. Quant à moi, en plus de la diminution de mes revenus, on m'impose une nouvelle taxe de solidarité… Je ne pourrai pas la payer, qu'ils m'envoient en prison, ce sera toujours mieux que de se retrouver à la rue.»
Grèves en cascade
Jeudi, les rues d'Athènes étaient paralysées par la grève des transports en commun et des taxis, tandis que les enseignants et les employés municipaux leur emboîtaient le pas. Du coup, les Grecs avaient pris leur voiture, contribuant à la constitution d'embouteillages monstres. De leur côté, les contrôleurs aériens ont cessé le travail quatre heures, forçant les compagnies aériennes à annuler ou à reporter des vols. Et ce n'est que le prélude à une fin de mois de septembre et un mois d'octobre qui s'annoncent particulièrement chauds sur le plan ­social.
Aujourd'hui encore, le pays tout entier sera à nouveau largement privé de transports. Dès mardi prochain, les chauffeurs de taxi ont prévu une deuxième grève de quarante-huit heures, renouvelable. Avant la grève générale nationale prévue le 19 octobre prochain, la Grèce va donc vivre sur un rythme chaotique.
Pour Pavlos Tzimas, analyste politique, le malaise est profond. Il risque même, estime-t-il, de se retourner contre le gouvernement : «Cela ne peut plus durer. Tous les trois mois, on annonce aux Grecs un nouveau paquet de mesures d'austérité. Le gouvernement a surestimé son programme de ­rigueur et il a sous-estimé le poids de la récession.»
Les milieux d'affaires s'inquiètent tout autant. «Il n'y a pas de boussole, ce gouvernement ne sachant pas où il va», s'insurge Constantinos Michalos qui dirige la Chambre de commerce et d'industrie d'Athènes.

- [Deux fois plus de suicides
en Grèce depuis fin 2008->http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2011/09/22/04016-20110922ARTFIG00526-deux-fois-plus-de-suicides-en-grece-depuis-fin-2008.php]


À Thessalonique, un homme, âgé de 55 ans, s'immole à l'entrée d'une banque, après avoir demandé, en vain, selon la police, à l'établissement financier une renégociation de ses remboursements.
À Thessalonique, un homme, âgé de 55 ans, s'immole à l'entrée d'une banque, après avoir demandé, en vain, selon la police, à l'établissement financier une renégociation de ses remboursements.
Depuis le début de l'année, le ministère de la Santé grec a recensé 40% de suicides en plus. En trois ans, le taux de chômage a doublé.
Les chiffres font froid dans le dos. Depuis le début de la crise en 2009, le nombre de personnes qui se sont données la mort a doublé en Grèce, selon les chiffres du ministère de la Santé repris par le Wall Street Journal. Sur les cinq premiers mois de l'année, il y aurait même eu 40% de suicides en plus par rapport à la même période l'an passé. Ces chiffres sont d'autant plus impressionnants que selon l'autorité statistique grecque, le taux de suicide de la Grèce figurait parmi les plus bas de l'Union européenne entre 1990 et 2009.
Chômage, incapacités à rembourser ses dettes sont autant d'explications à ces gestes du désespoir. Selon les chiffres de Banque nationale de Grèce, le taux de chômage a doublé en plus de deux ans, à plus de 16%. «C'est l'illustration que la rigueur n'est pas la solution pour relancer la Grèce, affirme Céline Antonin, économiste à l'Office français des conjonctures économiques. La rigueur mène à la récession puis à la crise sociale. En asphyxiant les ménages (hausse de la fiscalité, baisse des salaires…), le pays se prive d'un moteur pour relancer la croissance».

De 10 à 100 appels d'urgence par jour en trois ans
L'accumulation de mesures d'austérité prouve surtout que le pays n'arrive pas à sortir de la crise. Une nouvelle grève générale des transports a d'ailleurs été déclenchée ce jeudi à Athènes en réaction au nouveau train de mesures annoncé par le gouvernement grec mercredi. D'autres mouvements sont prévus le 19 octobre. Le pays a connu une crise financière, puis une crise économique, enfin une crise sociale. Va-t-on assister à une crise suicidaire en Grèce ? «Je ne sais pas si l'on peut parler de crise suicidaire, déclare un sociologue. Mais il est certain que si le gouvernement ne prend pas conscience qu'il est en train de «tuer» ses compatriotes, le taux de suicide pourrait sérieusement s'accroître. Les Grecs sont asphyxiés». Cela rejoint les propos du ministre polonais des Finances, Jacek Rostowski, qui craint une «guerre» au sein de la zone euro !
Certains entrepreneurs n'hésitent pas à profiter de la situation critique de certains résidents étranglés financièrement en recourant à des «loan sharks». Autrement dit des prêts risqués à des taux d'intérêt illégalement élevés. La plupart du temps, ces personnes ont recours à la violence pour réclamer le remboursement des prêts. «Sauf à effacer partiellement la dette grecque, je ne vois pas la Grèce revenir sur ses mesures d'austérité. C'est plutôt à l'Union européenne de prendre conscience de cette situation», déclare Céline Antonin.
Une organisation caritative grecque, Klimaka, a mis en place, selon le Wall Street Journal, une ligne téléphonique d'urgence pour prévenir les suicides. Les employés affirment recevoir 100 appels par jour contre 10 avant la crise. La catégorie la plus concernée ? Les hommes âgés entre 35 et 60 ans, financièrement ruinés. «Ces hommes ont perdu une part de leur identité en tant que mari et gagne-pain de la famille et ne se considèrent plus comme des hommes», raconte Aris Violatzis, psychologue de l'organisation.


- How to prevent a depression


By Nouriel Roubini
The opinions expressed are his own.
AMSTERDAM – The latest economic data suggests that recession is returning to most advanced economies, with financial markets now reaching levels of stress unseen since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The risks of an economic and financial crisis even worse than the previous one – now involving not just the private sector, but also near-insolvent sovereigns – are significant. So, what can be done to minimize the fallout of another economic contraction and prevent a deeper depression and financial meltdown?
First, we must accept that austerity measures, necessary to avoid a fiscal train wreck, have recessionary effects on output. So, if countries in the eurozone’s periphery are forced to undertake fiscal austerity, countries able to provide short-term stimulus should do so and postpone their own austerity efforts. These countries include the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, the core of the eurozone, and Japan. Infrastructure banks that finance needed public infrastructure should be created as well.
Second, while monetary policy has limited impact when the problems are excessive debt and insolvency rather than illiquidity, credit easing, rather than just quantitative easing, can be helpful. The European Central Bank should reverse its mistaken decision to hike interest rates. More monetary and credit easing is also required for the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank. Inflation will soon be the last problem that central banks will fear, as renewed slack in goods, labor, real estate, and commodity markets feeds disinflationary pressures.
Third, to restore credit growth, eurozone banks and banking systems that are under-capitalized should be strengthened with public financing in a European Union-wide program. To avoid an additional credit crunch as banks deleverage, banks should be given some short-term forbearance on capital and liquidity requirements. Also, since the US and EU financial systems remain unlikely to provide credit to small and medium-size enterprises, direct government provision of credit to solvent but illiquid SMEs is essential.
Fourth, large-scale liquidity provision for solvent governments is necessary to avoid a spike in spreads and loss of market access that would turn illiquidity into insolvency. Even with policy changes, it takes time for governments to restore their credibility. Until then, markets will keep pressure on sovereign spreads, making a self-fulfilling crisis likely.
Today, Spain and Italy are at risk of losing market access. Official resources need to be tripled – through a larger European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), Eurobonds, or massive ECB action – to avoid a disastrous run on these sovereigns.
Fifth, debt burdens that cannot be eased by growth, savings, or inflation must be rendered sustainable through orderly debt restructuring, debt reduction, and conversion of debt into equity. This needs to be carried out for insolvent governments, households, and financial institutions alike.
Sixth, even if Greece and other peripheral eurozone countries are given significant debt relief, economic growth will not resume until competitiveness is restored. And, without a rapid return to growth, more defaults – and social turmoil – cannot be avoided.
There are three options for restoring competitiveness within the eurozone, all requiring a real depreciation – and none of which is viable:
· A sharp weakening of the euro towards parity with the US dollar, which is unlikely, as the US is weak, too.
· A rapid reduction in unit labor costs, via acceleration of structural reform and productivity growth relative to wage growth, is also unlikely, as that process took 15 years to restore competitiveness to Germany.
· A five-year cumulative 30% deflation in prices and wages – in Greece, for example – which would mean five years of deepening and socially unacceptable depression; even if feasible, this amount of deflation would exacerbate insolvency, given a 30% increase in the real value of debt.
Because these options cannot work, the sole alternative is an exit from the eurozone by Greece and some other current members. Only a return to a national currency – and a sharp depreciation of that currency – can restore competitiveness and growth.
Leaving the common currency would, of course, threaten collateral damage for the exiting country and raise the risk of contagion for other weak eurozone members. The balance-sheet effects on euro debts caused by the depreciation of the new national currency would thus have to be handled through an orderly and negotiated conversion of euro liabilities into the new national currencies. Appropriate use of official resources, including for recapitalization of eurozone banks, would be needed to limit collateral damage and contagion.
Seventh, the reasons for advanced economies’ high unemployment and anemic growth are structural, including the rise of competitive emerging markets. The appropriate response to such massive changes is not protectionism. Instead, the advanced economies need a medium-term plan to restore competitiveness and jobs via massive new investments in high-quality education, job training and human-capital improvements, infrastructure, and alternative/renewable energy. Only such a program can provide workers in advanced economies with the tools needed to compete globally.
Eighth, emerging-market economies have more policy tools left than advanced economies do, and they should ease monetary and fiscal policy. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank can serve as lender of last resort to emerging markets at risk of losing market access, conditional on appropriate policy reforms. And countries, like China, that rely excessively on net exports for growth should accelerate reforms, including more rapid currency appreciation, in order to boost domestic demand and consumption.
The risks ahead are not just of a mild double-dip recession, but of a severe contraction that could turn into Great Depression II, especially if the eurozone crisis becomes disorderly and leads to a global financial meltdown. Wrong-headed policies during the first Great Depression led to trade and currency wars, disorderly debt defaults, deflation, rising income and wealth inequality, poverty, desperation, and social and political instability that eventually led to the rise of authoritarian regimes and World War II. The best way to avoid the risk of repeating such a sequence is bold and aggressive global policy action now.




- La crise et la non-gouvernance du monde (cas du FMI)


Depuis la période printemps-été de cette année, – à peu près depuis la démission de DSK de la direction du FMI et la désignation de Christine Lagarde à sa succession, – avec les diverses phases paroxystiques de la même crise qui ne cesse plus depuis l’automne 2008, le FMI a pris une attitude spécifique très critique de l’action des directions politiques, notamment aux USA et en Europe. Le FMI renouvelle cette position hier, en même temps qu’il communique ses nouvelles prévisions trimestrielles, largement modifiées vers le bas, ou vers la chute. Il s’agit, selon le FMI, d’une “nouvelle phase dangereuse” où les risques d’un nouvel effondrement, d’une nouvelle récession, voire pire, sont à nouveau très actifs. (Si tant est qu’ils n’ont jamais cessé de l’être ?)
…Mais ce qui nous intéresse, certes, c’est moins l’aspect technique, les prévisions, etc., que l’attitude du FMI vis-à-vis des directions politiques, – dont, une fois de plus, aucune n’est épargnée. Voici des éléments de cette attitude, dans The Independent du 21 septembre 2011.
«The International Monetary Fund yesterday warned that the global economy is entering a “dangerous new phase” and called on politicians around the world to take decisive action to avoid large parts of the world slipping into another recession. […]
»Unveiling the report in Washington yesterday, Olivier Blanchard, the chief economist of the IMF, stressed that the present disappointing growth rates will only materialise if global leaders implement their present policy commitments to reduce deficits and to reform their economies. […]
»Mr Blanchard warned European leaders to “get their act together” and resolve the crisis. The first step, he said, should be the rapid implementation of the July deal in Brussels to expand the powers of the European Financial Stability Facility.»
Précisons encore notre intérêt, en écartant les spéculations sur les événements à venir, les valeurs respectives des voies suivies ou préconisées par les uns et les autres, pour constater le renforcement de cette position antagoniste du FMI par rapport aux directions politiques d’une part, la politique (chaotique pour le moins, encombrée d’échecs, de compromis, etc.) suivie par les directions politiques, qui ne correspond manifestement pas aux vœux du FMI, d’autre part. Dans la mesure où ces positions antagonistes ont tendance à se confirmer, on peut donc constater un désaccord net entre le FMI et les directions politiques. On peut constater d’autre part le peu de conséquences, pour les uns et les autres, le FMI et les directions politiques, sur les positions des uns et des autres. Personne n’a une prédominance sur personne, et la notion de leadership, par puissance affirmée ou par influence prépondérante, n’a plus aucune réalité. Nous pensons qu’on peut commencer à sortir de cette situation générale quelques enseignements, ou suggestions d’enseignement.
L’enseignement principal découle du caractère évident d’incontrôlabilité de la situation, de ce que nous décrivons par ailleurs, également, comme une sorte de rupture d’incompréhension entre “les ‘élites’ au service du Système et le Système lui-même” («Observée d’une façon plus synthétique, la situation est celle d’une incertitude psychologique grandissante qui se développe entre les soi disant “élites” au service du Système, et le Système lui-même ; la confusion de ces “élites” grandit devant le constat que le Système s’autonomise de plus en plus et ne parvient plus à générer les conditions d’un redressement stable»). Il en résulte une atomisation et une dissolution des positions respectives et intégrées de ces “élites”, avec une réduction à mesure de leur puissance et de leur influence. Dans le cadre de leurs activités-Systèmes de plus en plus contradictoires parce que de plus en plus privées de références-Système sûres, ces “élites” n’ont plus de légitimité-Système, non pas parce que personne ne parvient plus à acquérir cette légitimité mais parce que cette notion semble déserter de plus en plus irrésistiblement ces acteurs institutionnels, à mesure de cet éloignement, ou de cette incompréhension de l’action du Système, en même temps que cette même notion semble avoir entamé elle-même un processus de dissolution. (Le paradoxe étant que la notion fondamentale de légitimité, – et non plus son simulacre, dit légitimité-Système, – serait éventuellement en train de migrer vers des situations symbolique de contestation qui, au contraire, pourraient acquérir une légitimité, – comme le mouvement “occuper Wall Street”. Dans ce cas, la notion quantitative, – “occuper Wall Street” ou tout autre mouvement de cette sorte en est privé, – ne nous intéresse plus, puisque la légitimité reviendrait vers des situations d’un seul intérêt qualitatif.)
Dans le domaine de l’opérationnalité, il se déduit de cette situation que plus aucune force, ou organisation-Système, ne parvient plus à s’approcher d’une position de leadership nécessaire à une structure répondant au besoin du Système, calquée sur les idées de l’“idéal de puissance” qui soutient (soutenait) le Système dans sa phase de surpuissance. Dans le cas qui nous occupe, il n’y a effectivement aucun leadership. Les directions politiques tiennent les rênes du pouvoir et n’en font rien que tenter de répondre à des événements incontrôlés, avec la plus puissante de ces directions publiques (les USA) se dissolvant à une vitesse extraordinaire, à l’image de son président ; les organisations extérieures, transnationales, sans aucun lien démocratique et sans aucune légitimité d’aucune sorte, d’une légitimité démocratique à une légitimité-Système, comme le FMI dans ce cas, peuvent s’affirmer d’une voix puissante mais uniquement dans le rôle critique et contestataire qui ne leur assure aucune autorité de leadership (de direction active). Ces organisations sont d’autant plus assurées et affirmées dans leurs critiques, qu’elles sont complètement irresponsables dans le sens légal du terme, d’autant plus qu’elles perdent de plus en plus leurs attaches occultes avec la direction politique dominante en complète dissolution (les USA).
Cette évolution correspond à la dynamique générale de ce que nous avons nommé la “dissolution du monde”, qui implique un désordre grandissant dans l’orientation et surtout dans le sens profond des relations internationales, ainsi que dans la hiérarchie de ces relations où plus aucune référence (puissance, influence) n’est capable de s’affirmer. Cette dynamique va directement dans le sens inverse de certaines conceptions qui sont entretenues et réaffirmées dans ces temps troublés, sur un “ordre mondial”, ou un “gouvernement du monde” ou tout autre organisation dans ce sens ; paradoxalement, ces conceptions sont réaffirmées à cause du désordre et de l’absence de leadership qui solliciteraient leur affirmation, alors qu’au contraire ce désordre et cette absence de leadership sont la conséquence de l’impossibilité de la mise en œuvre de ces conceptions. Il n’y a plus de cadre structurant suffisant pour supporter de telles ambitions, si tant est qu’il y en ait jamais eu, et l’on peut considérer que la situation était bien plus favorable à cette sorte de projet tant dans les années de Guerre froide que dans celles de l’immédiat après-Guerre froide. (C’est le dérapage et l’orientation vers la Chute duleadership US à partir de 1996 qui marqua la fin de cette période d’“ouverture” à de tels concepts.) C’est d’ailleurs dans ces années-là que diverses organisations ou concepts dans ce sens ont vu le jour, du Bilderberbgdans les années 1950, à la Trilatérale dans les années 1970, au Washington Consensus selon John Williamson du début des années 1990 (avec le Council of Foreign Relations [CFR] de bout en bout). L’ère de ces éventuelles opportunités est close : le Système a désormais échappé à tout contrôle et les diverses puissances qui lui sont liées ont perdu de ce fait leurs assises conceptuelles, ce qui faisait leur lien commun, cette légitimité-Système qui pouvait les assurer, dans certaines circonstances qui leur seraient favorables, d’une autorité sur les autres.


- Is the US Monetary System on the Verge of Collapse?


By David Galland, Casey Research
Tune into CNBC or click onto any of the dozens of mainstream financial news sites, and you’ll find an endless array of opinions on the latest wiggle in equity, bond and commodities markets. As often as not, you'll find those opinions nestled side by side with authoritative analysis on the outlook for the economy, complete with the author’s carefully studied judgment on the best way forward.
Lost in all the noise, however, is any recognition that the US monetary system – and by extension, that of much of the developed world – may very well be on the verge of collapse. Falling back on metaphor, while the world’s many financial experts and economists sit around arguing about the direction of the ship of state, most are missing the point that the ship has already hit an iceberg and is taking on water fast.
Yet if you were to raise your hand to ask 99% of the financial intelligentsia whether we might be on the verge of a failure of the dollar-based world monetary system, the response would be thinly veiled derision. Because, as we all know, such a thing is unimaginable!
Think again.
Monetary Madness
Honestly describing the current monetary system of the United States in just a few words, you could do far worse than stating that it is “money from nothing, cash ex nihilo.”
That’s because for the last 40 years – since Nixon canceled the dollar’s gold convertibility in 1971 – the global monetary system has been based on nothing more tangible than politicians' promises not to print too much.
Unconstrained, the politicians used the gift of being able to create money out of nothing to launch a parade of politically popular programs, each employing fresh brigades of bureaucrats, with no regard to affordability.
Such programs invariably surged during political campaigns and on downward slopes in the business cycle when politicians hearing the cries of the constituency to “do something” tossed any concern about balancing budgets out the window of expediency. After all, the power to print up the funds for debt service whenever needed makes moot any concern over deficit spending.
Former VP Cheney, who fashions himself a fiscal conservative, let the mask drop when, in 2002, he stated that “Reagan proved deficits don’t matter.”
Those words were echoed just a few weeks ago, when both former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and Obama economic advisor Larry Summers, in separate interviews, said almost the same, paraphrased as, “There is no chance of the US defaulting on its bonds, not when our government can borrow dollars and print new dollars to meet any future obligations.”
Of course, Greenspan and Summers were referring to an overt default – of just not paying – and not to a covert default engineered by inflation. Unfortunately, like virtually all of the power elite, both miss the point that the mountain of debt that has been heaped up since 1971 is fast reaching the point of collapsing like a too-big tailings pile and taking the monetary system down with it.
Importantly, the debt shown in this chart whistles past the government's unfunded liabilities, in particular for the Social Security and Medicare systems. Adding those would more than triple the US government’s acknowledged obligations – to over $60 trillion.
Given the role the US dollar plays as the world’s de facto reserve currency – with all major commodities priced in dollars, and dollars forming the bulk of reserves held by foreign central banks – the dismal shape of the US monetary system spells trouble for the global monetary system.
Making matters worse, following the lead of the United States, governments around the world long ago adopted similar fiat monetary systems. You can see the deficit contagion in this next chart. It is worth noting that the dire condition of the United States now leaves it in the same muddy wallow as Europe’s desperate PIIGS.
In a recent article in The Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard referenced a paper out of the BIS that paints the picture using appropriately stark terms.

Stephen Cecchetti and his team at the Bank for International Settlements have written the definitive paper rebutting the pied pipers of ever-escalating credit.
“The debt problems facing advanced economies are even worse than we thought.”
The basic facts are that combined debt in the rich club has risen from 165pc of GDP thirty years ago to 310pc today, led by Japan at 456pc and Portugal at 363pc.
“Debt is rising to points that are above anything we have seen, except during major wars. Public debt ratios are currently on an explosive path in a number of countries. These countries will need to implement drastic policy changes. Stabilization might not be enough.”
Viewing the situation from another perspective, we turn to the work of Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff, who studied the factors contributing to 29 past sovereign defaults. They found that default or debt restructuring occurred, on average, when external debt reached 73% of gross national product (GNP) and 239% of exports. Using the Reinhart/Rogoff findings, Casey Research Chief Economist Bud Conrad prepared the following chart showing that the US government is already far along on the path to bankruptcy.
It’s hard to argue against the contention that the situation is, to be polite, precarious. Given that the obligations of the US government, as well as most of the world’s other large economies, are now impossible to repay and that their reserves are just IOUs backed by nothing, the stage is set for a highly disruptive but entirely necessary do-over of the fiat monetary system.
“Preposterous!” say the lords of finance and masters of all.
Is it?
Of course, these very same mavens completely missed the looming housing crash and the depth and duration of the subsequent crisis – a crisis that is still far from over. In other words, listen to them at your peril, because in our view it’s essential in calibrating your financial affairs to understand that, if history is any guide, we are now well down the road to a collapse in the monetary system.
In fact, over its relatively short history, the US monetary system has come unglued time and time again thanks to politically expedient attempts to interfere with the workings of a free market in order to reward constituents or kick the can on the economic problems of the day down the road.
Thus it is our contention that while the mainstream media focus on the daily gyrations of equity markets or the futile political charade that is Washington, they overlook powerful tectonic rumblings indicating the world’s prevailing monetary system is about to fracture.
A Brief Timeline of US Monetary System Failures
Here’s a brief history of past disruptions here in the United States. Importantly, with the US dollar now the de facto reserve currency of the world, this time around it’s global.
1861 – When the Civil War begins, the dollar is convertible into gold and silver.
1862 – Congress passes the Legal Tender Act and authorizes the issuance of non-redeemable "Greenback" currency. Convertibility into gold and silver is suspended for all US currency.
1863 – National Banking Act authorizes the chartering of banks by the federal government.
1865 – A 10% tax is levied on the issuance of bank notes by state-chartered banks, effectively ending that practice.
1879 – The US Treasury resumes redeeming dollars for gold and silver.
1900 – Passage of the Gold Standard Act, adopting the gold standard by the United States and demonetizing silver.
Specifically, the act provided for "...the dollar consisting of twenty-five and eight-tenths grains (1.67 g) of gold nine-tenths fine, as established by section thirty-five hundred and eleven of the Revised Statutes of the United States, shall be the standard unit of value, and all forms of money issued or coined by the United States shall be maintained at a parity of value with this standard..."
But 33 years later, to gain the power to inflate the currency and collect the profit from doing so…
1933 – By executive order, Franklin Roosevelt prohibits the private ownership of gold. Congress passes the Gold Reserve Act, which enacts Roosevelt's executive order, abrogates all gold clauses in all contracts public or private, past or future (which cancels the convertibility of Federal Reserve notes into gold), though it confirms the convertibility of US Treasury notes held by foreigners into gold. Eleven years later, the US government takes its show on the road…
1944 – Bretton Woods system adopted with signature countries agreeing to tie the exchange rates of their currencies to the US dollar, which itself is linked to a fixed price of gold. Foreign trading partners retained the right to swap dollars for gold, imposing a de facto restraint on printing more dollars. For all intents and purposes, the US dollar becomes the world’s reserve currency. But 27 years later…
1971 – Nixon abruptly closes the “gold window,” unilaterally reneging on the Treasury's promise to allow foreign governments to redeem dollars for gold. Bretton Woods collapses. With no remaining tie to a tangible, the dollar is reduced to a paper token. The transition to a global fiat monetary system is complete.
Until 40 years go by and the inevitable consequences of giving politicians free rein over money creation become untenable…
Present day – Sovereign debt crisis. Desperate, debt-laden governments around the globe – the bulk of their reserves composed of fiat US dollars and euros at risk of going up in smoke – turn to the only thing they know, printing more money and issuing yet more debt. The global monetary system cracks and heads toward failure with no workable alternative on the horizon.
Governments, corporations and investors alike are caught unprepared in the downward spiral of failing fiat currencies and are wiped out by a combination of frantic currency debasements, higher taxation, exchange controls and worse. Social unrest spreads, with the public paradoxically demanding that governments do more, not less.
That’s because all the world’s major currencies are at risk, simultaneously, as the issuers engage in a dangerous race to the bottom. As the monetary system moves inexorably toward terminal debasement and collapse, the results will be catastrophic for the unprepared.
Importantly, while the list of historical attempts to re-jigger the US monetary system have, to this point, more or less succeeded in kicking the can a bit further down the road, the sheer scale of today’s government obligations has driven us into a box canyon, with no way out. As the government’s debt and spending obligations are mathematically impossible to resolve, it is now a certainty that a lot of people are going to wake up one morning to the reality that they are a lot poorer than they thought.
Fortunately for those now paying attention, the collapse of a monetary system doesn't happen in a flash. It is a progression, like the spiral of water down a drain. Thus, while no one can predict exactly when the downward spiral will accelerate out of control, there is still time to prepare.
Dark though the lens may be, this is the lens through which we here at Casey Research view all our investments. Simply, being right or wrong about your investment decisions in the years just ahead will be insignificant if the currencies underpinning those investments shrivel to just a fraction of their current values.
The dismal state of the US economy and out-of-control government spending affects every American’s life and wealth. In our free online event, The American Debt Crisis – How Big? How Bad? How to Protect Yourself, five Casey Research experts were joined by guests John Mauldin, Mike Maloney and Lew Rockwell to discuss the potential for a breakdown in the monetary system, and specific ways to protect and build your assets.


- [How Marx Came to Discover the Alienation of Labor: Mary Gabriel
Marx and the Alienation of Labor->http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-22/how-marx-discovered-the-alienation-of-labor-commentary-by-mary-gabriel.html]


By Mary Gabriel

Joblessness was liberating for Karl Marx in 1844 -- it meant he could go back to school. His classrooms were Paris’ gaslit cafes and wine cellars, and small offices filled with cigar smoke.
There were no lectures, there were discussions --boisterous gatherings that drew curious passers-by who watched men from many nations shout at one another about the relative merits of socialism, communism, nationalism, liberalism and democracy, and whether governments should be taken by force and rebuilt from the ruins, or whether appeals should be made to the ruling class that fundamental social change was coming.
All sides of the debate saw the need for new forms of government in Europe; the nature of society had changed. Absolute monarchs with their obsequious courtiers and despots with their bloody henchmen seemed like costume characters from another era. The men in Marx’s circle agreed the monarchies must go. They could not agree, however, on how, or on what would replace them.
At that time, there were no international organizations under whose auspices these men could gather. Gradually, however, in the melting pot of Paris, those who were at the forefront of the new ideologies began transcending the barriers of languages and customs to talk about common concerns. Several dominant strands were prominent among these middle-class reformers: liberalism, radicalism, nationalism and socialism.
Proletarian Army
All of those isms, however, existed largely in the theoretical realm, topics of discussion that could not be applied because they had no mass support -- no army. The reason for this was relatively straightforward: The working class was suspicious of middle-class reformers and consequently of their ideologies. Marx, too, was suspicious of these ideas.
Marx did not recognize in any of the isms a real understanding of the disease spreading through Europe’s fledgling industrial economic system, and without that knowledge, no meaningful social change was possible. Fully admitting that he, too, did not completely understand, Marx set out in search of answers.
He returned to the books he had been reading that year, specifically texts by French and English economists, filling notebook after notebook with scrambled jottings. These became the “Economic and Philosophical Manuscripts” or “1844 Manuscripts,” which Marx left unfinished but which formed the basis for his life’s work.
‘Bourgeois Economists’
The study of these “bourgeois economists” led Marx to the conclusion that these thinkers believed economic systems operated according to cold, immutable laws that carried men along and were beyond their control. These economists also believed that business, left to grow without government interference, would eventually produce a general benefit for all mankind. But Marx had seen and heard evidence to the contrary, and he set out to demythologize economics, to describe its real- world mechanics and, most forcefully, its consequences.
Marx worked his way through wage, rent, credit, profit, private property vs. communism, and the relations of capital to labor. What he discovered was that acquisition of the glittering prize of the new economic system, money (and by extension the things that such capital could buy), had become the driving force in modern man’s existence, perverting every aspect of his relations with other people, even how he viewed himself. It magically enabled the rich man to become whatever he chose.
‘Stupidity, Cretinism’
Meanwhile the labor that produced the rich man’s wealth robbed the worker of his lifeblood: “It produces palaces -- but for the worker, hovels. It produces beauty -- but for the worker, deformity. It replaces labor by machines, but it throws one section of the workers back to a barbarous type of labor, and it turns the other section into a machine. It produces intelligence -- but for the worker, stupidity, cretinism.”
Marx sought to explain how this corrosive relationship had developed. He began placing man in a system in which the grand bourgeoisie, which controlled all the money as well as the means of production, dehumanized the worker by reducing him to selling his labor for a wage determined by his employer. The worker in the new industrial relationship became alienated from his work, laboring for a class of men who reaped all the benefits and gave him in return only the means to survive.
Falling Wages
Marx’s theories became spectacles; evidence was luminescent everywhere. Wages had been falling for nearly 20 years while the cost of living during the same time rose 17 percent. In 1844 wide-scale food shortages began. A series of scandals exposed how French officials had helped create the economic imbalance by concentrating extreme wealth in the hands of a select few.
Although he had once discounted communism as unrealizable, Marx now saw it as the means to recalibrate society. Wealth would not be private property but shared. Men would work, but their work would benefit themselves and the greater good, not the property owner. He described communism as “the genuine resolution of the antagonism between man and nature and between man and man … between freedom and necessity.”
French and German workers in Paris who identified themselves as communists believed revolution was the only way to end exploitation, as its beneficiaries had so much to lose. Marx agreed, writing, “It takes actual communist action to abolish actual private property.”
Silesia Uprising
As if on cue, such violence occurred. Word arrived of an uprising in the Prussian region of Silesia, where on June 4, 1844, a group of weavers marched on the home of Prussian industrialists. Their demands for higher pay denied, the weavers stormed the house and destroyed it. The next day, as many as 5,000 weavers and their families burst into homes and factories, destroyed machines, and looted and ransacked residences and offices. The industrialists called in the Prussian military, which fired on the crowd, killing 35.
The revolt was the first of its kind involving industrial workers in Germany, and though it failed, Marx recognized in it the connection he sought between an impassioned proletariat, economics and the state. The driving force behind the rebellion was not an abstraction such as religion or ethnicity or a throne, as many had been in the past, but something much more tangible: bread.
Energized by events at home, exiled Germans, including Marx and Heinrich Heine, began meeting on Sundays at a Paris wine merchant’s shop. French police informers reported they discussed killing kings, oppressing the rich and religious, and other “words of horror.”
Steadfast Jenny
Jenny Marx’s letters to her husband during this period indicated a creeping anxiety about their future. She was evidently struggling to be strong, while raising their daughter at her parents’ house in Trier, as her husband traveled further along a dangerous road. But in the end she seemed resigned that the path Karl had chosen was inevitable and correct. To those who doubted his course, she said, “Can one not see everywhere signs of earthquake and the undermining of the foundations on which society has erected its temples and shops?”
About a month after she wrote those words, a failed assassination of Friedrich Wilhelm IV raised alarms throughout the kingdom. In a letter to Karl she wrote: “It was a social attempt at assassination! If something does break out, it will start from this direction ... the seeds of a social revolution are present.”
Marx, who in the summer of 1844 began writing for Vorwarts! (Forward!), published Jenny’s letter in the newspaper on Aug. 10, 1844, and signed it “A German Lady.”
Prussian Pressure
Her first piece of published writing appeared three days after Marx’s own initial contribution to the Paris-based weekly, which was known as the only uncensored opposition German- language newspaper in Europe and the most radical. Soon Vowarts! attracted the attention of the Prussian authorities. The Prussian government pressured its French counterpart, and the newspaper’s editor in chief was imprisoned for two months. The rest of the staff braced for more charges and possible expulsion.
In that atmosphere Jenny prepared to return to Paris. As she always would, she rallied to her husband’s side when he was under threat.
Within days of receiving her letter, Marx made the acquaintance of the man who would be his other lifelong protector, Friedrich Engels.





- Global Meltdown: Investors Are Dumping Nearly Everything


By: Patti Domm
CNBC Executive News Editor
With no solution in sight for Europe and new fears of a global recession, investors dumped stocks and commodities and ran to the safety of U.S. Treasurys.
Treasury yields [cnbc explains] , as a result,slipped to historic lows with the 10-year yielding 1.75 percent and the 30-year at 2.86 percent.
The dollar was also a beneficiary of a massive fear trade that sent U.S. stocks sharply lower, on the heels of steep sell-offs in equities markets around the globe.
The worst performing stock market sectors mirrored the sell-off in global commodities markets, with materials down 4.6 percent and energy stocks down 4.1 percent.
Copper, hit by concerns of a Chinese slowdown, tumbled 7 percent to a 1-year low. Gold, usually a safety play, was sold into the maelstrom as investors raised cash. The euro [EUR=X 1.3493 -0.0084 (-0.62%) ], broke below 1.35, a recent bottom of its range. It was trading in the 1.346 area, an eight-month low against the dollar. The dollar index [.DXY 78.33 0.99 (+1.28%) ] was 1.4 percent higher.
"People are finding it really isn't gold. It isn't precious metals. It's not currencies. U.S. Treasurys are where people are flocking to at a time of extreme concern about risk, and we continue to see Treasurys continue to get bid up," said Zane Brown, fixed income strategist at Lord Abbett.
The selling in risk assets picked up momentum after the Fed's statement Wednesday, in which it characterized risks to the economy as "significant" and noted that "strains in global financial markets" (or Europe) could be a catalyst. Then overnight, a preliminary China manufacturing data showed moderating growth.
The Fed unveiled the much anticipated "Operation Twist" program in an effort to drive down rates. The program got a lukewarm reception even though the Fed surprised markets with a plan to also buy mortgage securities.
The Fed intends to swap $400 billion in shorter dated Treasurys for the same amount in the 6-year to 30-year range. For the most part, traders worry the "twist" will do little to help the struggling economy.
"The Fed will have to go on a publicity tour over the next few weeks, coming out and stating what is the metric by which they will judge this as a success or failure," said Kevin Ferry of Cronus Futures.
"The metrics we look at—the financial conditions index—it's worse today," Ferry said. Spreads on a whole range of credit market indicators widened, including investment grade corporates, emerging market sovereigns, high-yield corporates, and municipal bonds.
Brown said he does not see the U.S. falling into recession , as the markets fear.
"The combination of consumers spending what they can, durable goods improving just at the margin, exports improving just at the margin and what the Fed does to promote lending should help us avoid a recession," he said. Brown said the Fed may spur some increase in bank lending, driving some economic activity.
"The activity on the part of the Fed is really going to make it difficult for banks to make money unless they start lending. That's what the Fed hopes will happen. Their rationale for doing this is to promote risk taking," he said.
The lack of resolution on Europe , however, remains the biggest culprit as investors worry the exposure of European banks to the sovereign crisis will kick off a global banking crisis. The EU, IMF and European Central Bank put off until October to determine what will be done about the next payment to Greece, without which it will default. Markets have been disappointed with the lack of a bigger plan of action from European leaders.
"I think it's about the lack of leadership anywhere in the world. We're seriously distressed about the lack of leadership and constant squabbling in Washington," Brown said.
The animosity between political parties was once more in the headlines Thursday as the House defeated a spending billi that would keep the government running. Republican majority leader Rep. John Boehner said he expects the bill to pass and blamed Democrats.




- Recession's second act would be worse than the first



By John W. Schoen, Senior Producer
Fresh evidence of a global economic slowdown has raised fears that governments around the world may be powerless to reverse it. If the world does fall into back into recession, it could be much harder to escape than the contraction that ended in 2009.
With banks still recovering from a decade-long credit bubble, governments slashing spending to cope with unsustainable debt, and unemployment at levels not seen in decades, a new recession would be “disastrous,” according to Roger Altman, a senior Treasury official in the Clinton administration.
“We could be in for a repeat of the experience of 1937, when America fell back into recession after three years of recovery from the Great Depression,” he wrote in the Financial Times.
Altman was referring to the fact the global downturn of the 1930s technically included two U.S. recessions, from 1929 to 1933 and again from 1937 to 1938. U.S. unemployment peaked at over 20 percent in the 1930s, according to historical estimates, and did not decline significantly until factories began gearing up for World War II.
Two years after the latest U.S. recession technically ended, evidence continues to build that the weak recovery is stalling out. The U.S. economy stopped producing new jobs in August after a string of mostly meager monthly job gains that failed to bring the unemployment rate below 9 percent.
On Thursday, fresh data showed the Eurozone's service sector contracting for the first time in two years; a separate index of the manufacturing sector, which has provided much of the region’s growth, slowed for the second month in a row.
A global stock sell-off that dragged market indices to their lowest level of the year spread to the U.S., where the Dow Jones industrial average was down nearly 400 points.
Until recently, there were hopes that emerging economies in places like China and Brazil could prop up global growth until a stronger recovery took hold elsewhere. But China’s two biggest export markets -- Europe and the United States -- are struggling, and that has cut into demand for Chinese goods. A report out Thursday showed that China’s factories slowed for the third month in a row.
"There is a global slowdown,” Jeavon Lolay, head of global research at Lloyds Banking Group, told Reuters. “There is no doubt the risks of a global recession have grown."
That’s also the opinion of Federal Reserve policymakers, who said Wednesday they saw "significant downside risks" to the U.S. economy after deciding to launch an unusual program of reshuffling $400 billion in Treasury holdings to try to push interest rates lower.
But with interest rates already at record lows, few expect the program to do much to increase the demand for loans. Businesses face weak demand for their products and services and consumers are continuing to work to pay down their debts. Though mortgage rates remain at record lows, millions of homeowners are unable to refinance their higher rate loans because they owe more than their home is worth.
Some analysts argue that the Fed’s latest move (dubbed Operation Twist because it “twists” the relationship between short- and long-term rates), will hurt economic growth because it will squeeze bank profits and lower the income consumers earn on their savings. Public and private pension funds, already under strain, will be even more badly underfunded because they’ll have to set aside more money to generate the same amount of cash to pay retiree benefits.
“In a couple of weeks (Operation Twist) will be a subject for economic history, and the main discussion will be that the Fed is grasping at straws,” former Fed governor William Poole told CNBC. “I think that they have thrown lead into the life preserver, and they are sinking.”
‘Slow motion train crash’
European central bankers appear increasingly unable to contain a widening banking crisis, sparked by the threat of bond defaults in Greece and Italy, Europe’s third-largest economy.
The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that Europe and the United States could slip back into recession next year without bold action
"We are seeing a slow-motion train crash in the euro area, where credit contraction risks leading to a new recession by Christmas unless governments face up to the task swiftly and forcefully," Martin Enlund, market strategist at the Swedish bank Handelsbanken told Reuters.
Policymakers in China, the world’s third largest economy behind the U.S. and EU, face their own set of tough choices. Rapid growth rate has fueled inflation that is running at a double-digit rate, according to analysts -- much higher than official targets. To contain inflation, Beijing has raised interest rates five times and lifted banks' reserve requirements nine times since October. If it clamps down too hard, though, a deeper economic slowdown could reverse China's efforts to lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.
China is also coping with a banking hangover of its own, after years of massive government lending for expansion of state-owned enterprises an infrastructure upgrades.
"There is a two-tier system within China and I think the lending that's taking place and the percentage of nonperforming loans is now at a level that is disturbing," David McAlvany, chief executive at McAlvany Financial Group told CNBC. "Ultimately, (China's banks) will have to see some comeuppance."


- Athènes paralysée, après l'annonce d'un nouveau plan de rigueur


Athènes était sans aucun transport, le 22 septembre, en raison d'une grève. Ici, devant une entreprise de chemin de fer.
GRÈCE, CORRESPONDANCE - Athènes était sans aucun transport, jeudi 22 septembre, en raison d'une grève des sociétés publiques de bus, de métros et de trains mais aussi des chauffeurs de taxis. Des centaines de vols ont été annulés, en raison d'un mouvement des aiguilleurs du ciel. Des embouteillages ont paralysé la capitale, au lendemain de l'annonce de nouvelles mesures d'austérité, qui a assommé la Grèce.
"Les salariés et les retraités sur l'autel du sacrifice", titre le premier quotidien, Ta Néa, proche du parti socialiste grec au pouvoir (Pasok), tandis qu'à gauche,Elefthérotypia s'indigne: "Des impôts à partir de 350 euros par mois !" Le seuil d'exonération fiscale est tombé à 5 000 euros de revenus par an.
Des fonctionnaires, des enseignants et des étudiants ont également organisé des manifestations, jeudi après-midi. Mais cette journée de grève est présentée par les syndicats comme un simple préambule à des mouvements sociaux plus durs. Deux journées de grève générale sont prévues les 5 et 19 octobre. "C'est une politique que nous ne tolérons pas. On n'en veut pas. Nous nous y opposons de façon constante et totale", a déclaré Iannis Panagopoulos, le président du syndicat du secteur privé, GSEE.
Les étudiants s'opposent enfin à la réforme des universités qui a été adopté par le parlement à la fin du mois d'août. Des mouvements d'occupation des universités ont déjà commencé. La contestation devrait grossir au cours du mois d'octobre.
Des étudiants ont manifesté à Athènes, le 22 septembre.
LE SECTEUR PRIVÉ AUSSI MOBILISÉ
Le mouvement des salariés du transport public rencontre celui du secteur privé. Les chauffeurs de taxis protestent contre le projet de dérèglementation de leur profession. Ils ont fait une dizaine de jours de grève en pleine saison touristique, en juillet et août. Le gouvernement veut rendre gratuite l'attribution des licences de taxis, qui se vendent – et se revendent – plusieurs dizaines de milliers d'euros, pas toujours dans une grande transparence fiscale.
Le patronat est également en colère. "La Grèce se transforme en hospice pour les pauvres, avec de nouvelles mesures annoncées chaque jour et chaque semaine", a commenté le patron de la Chambre de commerce et d'industrie d'Athènes,Constantinos Michalos, qui estime que la politique menée ne peut être "supportée ni par les entreprises, ni par les travailleurs ni par les retraités" et qu'elle conduira à la "destruction économique et sociale du pays".
Le nouveau plan de rigueur a été imposé par la "troïka" – les représentants du Fonds monétaire international de la banque centrale européenne, et de l'Union européenne – ulcérée de voir que les réformes promises par le gouvernement n'avançaient pas. Le gouvernement prévoit la baisse des retraites de plus de 1 200 euros et la mise en chômage technique de 30 000 employés du secteur public.
"Ces mesures sont destinées à nous protéger pour éviter la crise", a plaidé le ministre des finances Evangélos Vénizélos, en se référant à la situation de l'Argentine qui a fait faillite en 2000. Il devra convaincre son propre ministère. Les salariés du ministère des finances (administration, fisc et douanes) ont annoncé deux jours de grève les 27 et 28 septembre.


- G20: des leaders écrivent à Sarkozy


Les leaders de sept pays du G20 - l'Australie, le Canada, l'Indonésie, la Grande-Bretagne, le Mexique, l'Afrique du Sud et la Corée du Sud - ont cosigné une lettre adressée à Nicolas Sarkozy, dans laquelle ils évoquent la crise économique et financière.
Selon eux, beaucoup d'économies avancées auront des difficultés à sortir de la récession. «Nous n'avons pas encore maîtrisé les défis de la crise et les déséquilibres mondiaux augmentent encore», préviennent-ils. Les sept leaders estiment qu'il faut prendre des initiatives pour «accroître la demande mondiale sans créer de déséquilibres insoutenables».
Concernant la zone euro, en particulier, les gouvernements et institutions «doivent agir rapidement pour résoudre la crise», écrivent-ils. Plus généralement, ce courrier prône «des marchés ouverts, une souplesse accrue des changes», tout en conseillant de «s'abstenir de toute dévaluation compétitive».


Commentary No. 313, September 15, 2011
- "The Social-Democratic Illusion"

Immanuel Wallerstein
Social-democracy had its apogee in the period 1945 to the late 1960s. At that time, it represented an ideology and a movement that stood for the use of state resources to ensure some redistribution to the majority of the population in various concrete ways: expansion of educational and health facilities; guarantees of lifelong income levels by programs to support the needs of the non-"wage-employed" groups, particularly children and seniors; and programs to minimize unemployment. Social-democracy promised an ever-better future for future generations, a sort of permanent rising level of national and family incomes. This was called the welfare state. It was an ideology that reflected the view that capitalism could be "reformed" and acquire a more human face.
The Social-Democrats were most powerful in western Europe, Great Britain, Australia and New Zealand, Canada, and the United States (where they were called New Deal Democrats) - in short, in the wealthy countries of the world-system, those that constituted what might be called the pan-European world. They were so successful that their right-of-center opponents also endorsed the concept of the welfare state, trying merely to reduce its costs and extent. In the rest of the world, the states tried to jump onto this bandwagon by projects of national "development."
Social-democracy was a highly successful program during this period. It was sustained by two realities of the times: the incredible expansion of the world-economy, which created the resources that made the redistribution possible; and United States hegemony in the world-system, which ensured the relative stability of the world-system, and especially the absence of serious violence within this wealthy zone.
This rosy picture did not last. The two realities came to an end. The world-economy stopped expanding and entered into a long stagnation, in which we are still living; and the United States began its long, if slow, decline as a hegemonic power. Both new realities have accelerated considerably in the twenty-first century.
The new era beginning in the 1970s saw the end of the world centrist consensus on the virtues of the welfare state and state-managed "development." It was replaced by a new, more rightwing ideology, called variously neo-liberalism or the Washington Consensus, which preached the merits of reliance on markets rather than on governments. This program was said to be based on a supposedly new reality of "globalization" to which "there was no alternative."
Implementing neo-liberal programs seemed to maintain rising levels of "growth" on stock markets but at the same time led to rising worldwide levels of indebtedness, unemployment, and lower real income levels for the vast majority of the world's populations. Nonetheless, the parties that had been the mainstays of the left-of-center social-democratic programs moved steadily to the right, eschewing or playing down support for the welfare state and accepting that the role of reformist governments had to be reduced considerably.
While the negative effects on the majority of the populations were felt even within the wealthy pan-European world, they were felt even more acutely in the rest of the world. What were their governments to do? They began to take advantage of the relative economic and geopolitical decline of the United States (and more widely of the pan-European world) by focusing on their own national "development." They used the power of their state apparatuses and their overall lower costs of production to become "emerging" nations. The more "left" their verbiage and even their political commitment, the more they were determined to "develop."
Will this work for them as it had once worked for the pan-European world in the post-1945 period? It is far from obvious that it can, despite the remarkable "growth" rates of some of these countries - particularly, the so-called BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) - in the last five to ten years. For there are some serious differences between the current state of the world-system and that of the immediate post-1945 period.
One, the real cost levels of production, despite neoliberal efforts to reduce them, are in fact now considerably higher than they were in the post-1945 period, and threaten the real possibilities of capital accumulation. This makes capitalism as a system less attractive to capitalists, the most perceptive of whom are searching for alternative ways to secure their privileges.
Two, the ability of the emerging nations to increase in the short run their acquisition of wealth has put a great strain on the availability of resources to provide their needs. It therefore has created an ever-growing race for land acquisition, water, food, and energy resources, which is not only leading to fierce struggles but is in turn also reducing the worldwide ability of capitalists to accumulate capital.
Three, the enormous expansion of capitalist production has created at last a serious strain on the world's ecology, such that the world has entered into a climate crisis, whose consequences threaten the quality of life throughout the world. It has also fostered a movement for reconsidering fundamentally the virtues of "growth" and "development" as economic objectives. This growing demand for a different "civilizational" perspective is what is being called in Latin America the movement for "buen vivir" (a liveable world).
Four, the demands of subordinate groups for a real degree of participation in the decision-making processes of the world has come to be directed not only at "capitalists" but also at the "left" governments that are promoting national "development."
Fifth, the combination of all these factors, plus the visible decline of the erstwhile hegemonic power, has created a climate of constant and radical fluctuations in both the world-economy and the geopolitical situation, which has had the result of paralyzing both the world's entrepreneurs and the world's governments. The degree of uncertainty - not only long-term but also the very short-term - has escalated markedly, and with it the real level of violence.
The social-democratic solution has become an illusion. The question is what will replace it for the vast majority of the world's populations.
by Immanuel Wallerstein

- Le dépeçage de la Grèce


L'Union européenne, la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) et le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) qui agissent au nom des banques internationales exigent une nouvelle série de mesures d'austérité à l'encontre de la classe ouvrière grecque comme condition préalable au déblocage de la prochaine tranche du plan d'aide, faute de quoi la Grèce fera défaut le mois prochain.
Les ministres européens des Finances, qui s'étaient réunis vendredi et samedi en Pologne, ont refusé de verser la tranche de 8 milliards d'euros parce que la Grèce dont l'économie, qui s'est effondrée suite aux licenciements de masse et aux coupes sociales déjà imposées, n'a pas réussi à tenir ses objectifs de réduire le budget.
Le représentant du FMI en Grèce, Bob Traa, en avait établi les critères lors d'une conférence économique lundi à Athènes. S'exprimant dans un pays qui a vu son taux de chômage officiel presque doublé depuis 2008 en passant à 16 pour cent - le véritable taux de chômage avoisine les 30 pour cent - Traa a exigé davantage de réductions drastiques des salaires et des emplois dans le secteur public, des fermetures d'organismes public entiers et la privatisation et la vente immédiates d'entreprises de l'Etat.
Se plaignant de ce que le secteur public grec est « très important », Traa a dit que sa contraction « nécessitera obligatoirement la fermeture d'unités publiques inefficaces ainsi qu'une réduction de la vaste main-d'ouvre et des généreux salaires du secteur public. »
Au moment même où il condamnait la classe ouvrière grecque à la pauvreté, il a attisé la convoitise des banquiers pour des profits immenses provenant de la vente au rabais des biens de l'Etat. « On peut faire beaucoup d'argent en Grèce, » a dit Traa. « Le programme de privatisation n'est pas seulement une réforme structurelle c'est aussi un moyen d'attirer des investissements étrangers directs dans le pays et donc de la liquidité et du capital. »
Il a averti que la Grèce devait vendre rapidement certaines entreprises publiques à des sociétés privées si elle ne veut « pas faire défaut ».
Comme une meute de loups qui s'apprête à chasser sa proie, la famille mondiale des banquiers et des spéculateurs - dont les opérations semi-criminelles ont provoqué la crise économique et dont le renflouement par l'argent du contribuable a conduit les trésors publics à la faillite - est actuellement en train de planifier le dépeçage de la Grèce en transformant la destruction de la société entière en une manne financière pour elle-même.
La réponse du gouvernement social-démocrate PASOK aux nouvelles exigences de la soi-disant « troïka », qui supervise le plan d'aide - l'UE, la Banque centrale européenne et le FMI - a été de se conformer. Le premier ministre George Papandreou a annulé une visite aux Etats-Unis et a organisé dimanche une réunion d'urgence de son cabinet ministériel à la suite de laquelle le ministre des Finances, Evangelos Venizelos, a promis d'annoncer de nouvelles coupes dans les dépenses publiques. « Tout le monde veut un Etat plus petit, »a-t-il déclaré.
Selon divers articles de presse, les mesures exigées par la « troïka » comprennent :
- La suppression de 20.000 emplois supplémentaires dans le secteur public d'ici 2015, ce qui ramènera le montant total des licenciements à 100.000.
- La résiliation rétroactive à effet immédiat de tout recrutement effectué dans le secteur public en 2010 et en 2011, touchant ainsi 25.000 travailleurs de plus.
- La réduction des retraites et des salaires des employés des services publics. La réduction de la retraite des marins et des employés des sociétés publiques de télécommunication. Le gel de toutes les retraites d'Etat jusqu'en 2015.
- L'accélération de la fermeture ou de la fusion de 65 organismes d'Etat.
- L'augmentation d'un impôt spécial sur la consommation du fioul.
- L'augmentation des impôts sur le tabac, l'alcool et les produits de luxe.
Il y a des divisions croissantes entre les Etats-Unis et l'Europe et au sein de l'Europe quant à savoir si le renflouement de la Grèce devrait être poursuivi ou si le pays devrait faire défaut en quittant la zone euro. Le premier choix signifie une expansion considérable des moyens financiers publics pour le renflouement des banques. Le second choix signifie une catastrophe sociale pour la Grèce qui pourrait déclencher une nouvelle crise financière plus grande encore que l'effondrement de Wall Street d'il y a trois ans, en entraînant toute une série de défauts souverains et de faillites bancaires.
Les deux scénarios conduiront à l'appauvrissement de la classe ouvrière et à la destruction de tous les acquis sociaux passés.
La bourgeoisie internationale est parfaitement consciente des implications sociales de la crise et des mesures brutales qu'elle adopte pour faire payer l'addition à la classe ouvrière. La BBC a cité lundi le président de la Chambre de commerce d'Athènes, Constantine Michalos, qui a dit, « . si nous atteignons un niveau de chômage de 20 pour cent, alors du point de vue économique il y a un danger imminent que la cohésion sociale explose. »
Des conclusions politiques bien claires sont tirées et des préparatifs sont en cours. Le Wall Street Journal a publié lundi sur son blog un commentaire intitulé : « Grèce : Il ne faut pas sous-estimer le rôle de l'armée. »
Le commentaire débute en disant: « L'instabilité politique et la rébellion se sont propagées au-delà de la Méditerranée tout au long de la côte de l'Afrique du Nord et jusqu'à la Syrie, mais pourquoi devraient-elles en rester là ? Pourquoi ne se répandraient-elles pas à la Grèce par exemple ? »
« Il convient de rappeler que les généraux grecs avaient perpétré un coup d'Etat en 1967 pour gouverner ensuite le pays en tant que junte. La démocratie n'avait été rétablie qu'en 1975. Cela ne fait pas si longtemps. »
« L'armée grecque reste encore une force très significative dans le pays. La Grèce dépense plus pour ses forces armées en pourcentage du PIB qu'aucun autre pays de l'Union européenne - 3,2 pour cent contre une moyenne communautaire de 1,6 pour cent, » selon les données de l'Institut international de la recherche sur la paix de Stockholm (SIPRI).
« Le jour où la Grèce sera à court d'argent - à moins d'une nouvelle injection massive d'argent de l'UE, de la BCE et du FMI - se rapproche de jour en jour. Si les bureaucrates ne sont pas payés, ils déposent leurs outils et se mettent en grève. Mais, que se passe-t-il lorsque l'armée n'est pas payée ? »
L'auteur poursuit en remarquant que la CIA avait conclu dans un rapport publié en juin dernier qu'un coup militaire était possible en Grèce. Il conclut en disant : « Est-ce qu'un coup militaire est probable en Grèce ? Peut-être pas. Mais c'est une possibilité qui ne peut être écartée. »
La classe ouvrière doit prendre ceci comme un avertissement - et pas seulement en Grèce. Partout dans le monde la bourgeoisie est en train de mener une guerre de classe brutale pour tenter de se sortir de la crise la plus profonde du système capitaliste depuis les années 1930. Tout comme à cette époque, aujourd'hui encore la réponse ultime de la classe dirigeante à l'inévitable résistance de masse de la classe ouvrière c'est la dictature et la guerre.
La seule solution pour les masses laborieuses est le recours à son vaste pouvoir social et politique dans une lutte révolutionnaire afin de mettre un terme au capitalisme et d'établir le socialisme mondial. Ceci requiert qu'elles se libèrent du joug de la politique bourgeoise et de l'emprise des syndicats qui opèrent comme les gendarmes des entreprises pour la classe dirigeante, pour que les travailleurs construisent de nouvelles organisations de lutte de masse. La question cruciale est la construction du Comité international de la Quatrième Internationale en tant que nouvelle direction révolutionnaire afin d'imprégner les luttes à venir d'un programme socialiste et internationaliste.




- Outside View: America don't get no respect

by Harlan Ullman

The late American comedian Rodney Dangerfield's signature line was "I don't get no respect." Dangerfield's routine was packed with jokes about how anything from inanimate objects such as refrigerators to children and pets managed to disrespect him.
Today, sadly, is the United States becoming a global Rodney Dangerfield? No matter where one looks, America ain't getting much respect.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was in Europe last week telling his European colleagues to capitalize what could be an imploding banking system. Leading newspapers blared that European bankers bluntly rejected Geithner's admonishments. The upshot is that U.S. advice isn't quite what it used to be.
The sorry fiasco in Congress over raising the debt ceiling limit was perhaps the most stunning example of a hopelessly paralyzed political system. A tsunami of harshly negative opinion in the United States and abroad overwhelmed what little respect for America's politics was left.
And the unfortunate phrase coming from the White House over the military campaign to oust Libya's Moammar Gadhafi of "leading from behind," never repudiated by U.S. President Barack Obama, was a further breach in confidence and respect for the United States by many of its allies let alone its adversaries and others wishing America no good.
The latest Washington tell-all book just hit the streets accusing the White House of chronic indecision, a hostile work environment for women and a president who couldn't control his team. The White House rejected those allegations. However, among the political literati in Washington, this White House is perceived as among the most dysfunctional in a long time. That perception further destroys respect for the administration and its ability to lead the nation.
Given the economic woes and the failure to complete what seems to be an unending recovery with unemployment stalled around 9 percent and a poverty rate at 15 percent -- up from about 11 percent only a decade ago -- Obama's approval rating is down to the 30 percentile range.
As low as that is, respect for Congress is hardly discernible with approval ratings barely in double figures giving the president a 20-25 point advantage over his elected colleagues on Capitol Hill.
This absence of respect translates to foreign policy.
NATO, the bedrock of Western security for the past 62 years is deeply divided over its purpose. War-weariness in Afghanistan in particular but also Libya; economic austerity on steroids; possible fatal flaws in the European banking system; and politically weak minority governments call into question commitments of resources and will necessary to maintaining a vibrant military alliance especially since the threat for which NATO was created has been gone for more than 20 years.
Instead of showing imagination and leadership with a NATO summit scheduled for May of next year in Chicago, given other more immediate crises and issues, the White House has kept that planning on a back burner. All of this exacerbates the perception of an absence of U.S. leadership or, worse, interest in the alliance.
Palestinian demands for recognition by the United Nations are a direct challenge not just to Israel. The United States is Israel's patron. While the United States will try to deflect or veto recognition, that won't enhance its standing with many members especially in the Arab and Islamic worlds.
A final example of disrespect, senior U.S. officials say that last week's attacks attributed to the Haqqani network against military and diplomatic headquarters in Kabul were a signal to the United States of the reach of certain elements in Pakistan to affect events in Afghanistan.
Coming just days before the weekend meeting in Spain among NATO chiefs of defense and the last opportunity U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Adm. Mike Mullen had before he retires to see Pakistani army chief Gen. A.P. Kayani, the attacks may not have been coincidental. If true, that speaks volumes.
More depressingly, the 2012 presidential campaign is off and running with a vengeance. Republican candidates are embarked on often scorched Earth campaigns to demolish opponents and, of course, to attack the incumbent. This process hasn't bolstered America's image. And it is just starting with nearly 14 months to go.
America is adrift. Absence of respect is one measure of the desperate state of the leadership and governing capacity of the world's most powerful country. Despite demands for the president to fire key staff or become less loved and more feared, changing this reality and its perception will not happen quickly if it happens at all.
Some believe these conditions are self-correcting and will rebuild respect. Perhaps.
But, since 1776, fundamental self-correction in America occurred only in 1861 with a bloody civil war that resolved previously irreconcilable constitutional contradictions and 1941 with a world war that ultimately made America a superpower.
What lies ahead could be equally momentous -- for good or for ill.
(Harlan Ullman is chairman of the Killowen Group, which advises leaders of government and business, and is senior adviser at Washington's Atlantic Council.)



- Le front de Wall Street


Depuis samedi dernier, Wall Street est “occupé”, Wall Street est devenu un “front”. Il s’agissait du samedi 17 septembre, le “jour de rage” dont nous avions parlé le 15 septembre 2011. Les nouvelles sont diverses, de même que les conditions de l’occupation initiale avaient été assez désordonnées. Il avait d’abord été question de quelques centaines de manifestants, puis de plusieurs milliers. Le site “Occuper Wall Street”, qui est celui de l’organisation conduisant “les opérations”, a décrit les conditions initiales («On September 17th, 2011, approximately 2,000 of us marched on the Financial District. At twelve noon, a detachment of us marched on the head of Wall Street and formed a spontaneous blockade, prompting the New York Police Department to threaten arrest…»)
Un troisième communiqué du mouvement a été mis en ligne hier, par le même site. (Le “Nous sommes les 99%” est une référence à un des slogans du mouvement, et à la fameuse statistique concernant les 1% de citoyens US disposant de l’essentiel de la fortune nationale, dans une situation d’inégalité socio-économique sans précédent depuis 1928, – situation dont Wall Street est un des principaux instruments.)
«We're still here. We intend to stay until we see movements toward real change in our country and the world. This is the third communiqué from the 99 percent.
»Today, we occupied Wall Street from the heart of the Financial District. Starting at 8:00 AM, we began a march through the Wall Street area, rolling through the blocks around the New York Stock Exchange. At 9:30 AM, we rang our own “morning bell” to start a “people's exchange,” which we brought back to Liberty Plaza. Two more marches occurred during the day around the Wall Street district, each drawing more supporters to us.»
Le 20 septembre 2011, RAW Story a répercuté l’intervention de Michael Moore, le cinéaste activiste de gauche, interviewé lors de l’émission de Rachel Maddow, sur MSNBC. Moore se plaint de la très faible couverture médiatique du mouvement.
«Can you imagine if a thousand tea partiers had been arrested in front of the White House? It would be the top of every news story. People are down on Wall Street right now holding a sit in and a camp in down there, virtually no news about this protest. This goes on with liberals and the left all the time, and it gets ignored. Fortunately, there are shows like yours and others who aren’t ignoring it, but it doesn’t mean that it isn’t happening and it will continue to happen.»
Sans doute Michael Moore a-t-il raison, et effectivement la couverture des “événements” de Wall Street est-elle faible. D’autre part, du point de vue journalistique et des “événements”, s’agit-il d’un véritable événement justifiant une couverture journalistique ? Le mouvement espérait 20.000 participants le 17 septembre, il n’en a eu que 2.000 selon sa propre comptabilité (d’autres comptabilités ont donné 5.000 personnes). La tactique de la police de New York, très présente à Wall Street pour entraver l’“occupation”, a été de fractionner les manifestants pour réduire leur capacité d’occupation, tout en opérant des interpellations de circonstance, ou même des arrestations destinées à désorganiser le mouvement. Le résultat a été effectivement de réduire initialement le nombre des manifestants. Actuellement, la situation est difficile à apprécier en termes quantitatifs et, disons, événementiels ; il semble que les organisateurs du mouvement devraient chercher à le faire durer en le renforçant de nouveaux participants.
La question principale est très différente de toutes celles qui peuvent surgir à la lecture de ces quelques lignes reflétant l’incertitude de “la situation”. La question principale concerne la nature même des “événements” et la façon dont il faut les interpréter. Les conditions très différentes qu’ont installé à la fois les processus de communication et le poids psychologique considérable de la crise générale et des crises sectorielles diverses qui la composent forment un élément fondamental de la perception des “événements”, et conduisent à les considérer symboliquement, c’est-à-dire comme un seul événement (symbolique) qui a sa signification propre hors de toutes les références quantitatives qui conduiraient nécessairement à apprécier “occuper Wall Street” comme dérisoire, et à sa disqualification. Aujourd’hui, la situation générale des psychologies est caractérisée par une crainte permanente devant les conditions financières et économiques générées par le Système, les échecs de la “reprise” annoncée depuis deux ans, le constat non seulement de l’impuissance des diverses directions (dont les directions politiques) mais du caractère évident d’incontrôlabilité des événements. Observée d’une façon plus synthétique, la situation est celle d’une incertitude psychologique grandissante qui se développe entre les soi disant “élites” au service du Système, et le Système lui-même ; la confusion de ces “élites” grandit devant le constat que le Système s’autonomise de plus en plus et ne parvient plus à générer les conditions d’un redressement stable. (Cette situation est logique puisque nous observons que le Système est passé de sa phase de surpuissance à celle de l’autodestruction.) Le résultat de cette dichotomie remarquable est de donner, aux yeux mêmes des défenseurs du Système et sans qu’ils le réalisent effectivement, une légitimité grandissante aux positions contestataires et protestataires.
De ce point de vue, le mouvement “occuper Wall Street”, même s’il est quantitativement négligeable, même s’il est largement ignoré par mes médias-Système comme s’en plaint Michael Moore, a acquis une certaine légitimité symbolique. Le reproche de Moore est discutable du point de vue technique journalistique, – l’équivalent de l’aspect quantitatif, pour cette activité, – parce que les événements du mouvement “occuper Wall Street” sont de peu d’importance quantitative, – si l’on s’en tient aux seuls faits. Au contraire, ils ont ce poids symbolique dont nous parlons, cette légitimité, qui font qu’ils correspondent au climat général, qu’ils en sont effectivement une sorte d’interprétation symbolisée. Ils font partie de cette myriades d’événements qui se succèdent, qui constituent les symboles du mécontentement général, particulièrement dans le cas des conditions particulières des USA, où les mouvements sociaux en tant que tels sont en général extrêmement réticents, ou très largement contenus dans des bornes de surveillance du Système. Nous dirions que le succès d’“occuper Wall Street” est d’avoir eu lieu, de se poursuivre malgré des conditions quantitatives très faibles, de ne pas sombrer dans le ridicule au regard des moyens de communication du Système qui ne réagissent d’habitude qu’aux stimuli quantitatifs. Au contraire, l’activité de la police, qui continue à tenter de “nettoyer” Wall Street, contribue à renforcer la crédibilité et la légitimité du mouvement.
On ne peut raisonner en termes de “défaite” et de “victoire”. Il y a simplement ce fait qu’“occuper Wall Street” fait partie d’une chaine d’initiatives symboliques qui ont leur raison d’être (leur légitimité, toujours) à cause de leur correspondance avec la crise. Wall Street n’est certainement pas le parc Tahrir du Caire, en aucune façon pour les événements et les conséquences, mais la correspondance est indiscutable dans l’esprit et dans le caractère symbolique. Le véritable événement à cet égard est que le caractère symbolique soit si présent dans la perception que nous avons du mouvement “occuper Wall Street” et, par conséquent, la légitimité de la chose, tout cela en correspondance avec la situation de la crise générale (pas seulement la crise financière et Wall Street, mais bien sûr la crise GCCC, ou GC3).



- Greek minister says 50% haircut possible: reports

By MarketWatch
FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos has told fellow Socialist party lawmakers that there are three scenarios for the end of the country's debt crisis, including an outcome in which bondholders take a 50% haircut in an orderly default, Greek newspapers reported Friday. In the first scenario, Europe follows through on the program agreed by European leaders in July, which extends a new 109 billion euro ($148 billion) aid package to Greece and projects a 20% writedown for bond holders, newspaper Ta Nea reported, according to Bloomberg. In a "bad" scenario, the agreement collapses and is followed by a disorderly default, while a "better" scenario would see an orderly default that would indicate a 50% haircut for investors, the report said. A government spokesman dismissed the reports, according to Reuters.


- Comment la Fed assèche les banques européennes



La banque centrale américaine assèche-t-elle le financement des banques européennes en dollars ? Très inquiète de l'évolution de la crise de la dette souveraine sur le Vieux Continent et de ses conséquences sur les établissements financiers, la Réserve fédérale (Fed) a pris, il y a plusieurs semaines, des mesures restrictives à l'égard du système financier européen.
"Elle a exigé que des banques non américaines déposent des actifs en garantie à l'avance, même pour celles qui ne lui empruntent pas d'argent, confie une source proche de la Fed. C'est surtout pour la Fed une façon de se protéger au cas où les banques viendraient chercher un prêt d'urgence", d'aller plus vite en cas de tension.
Répercussion
En temps normal, les établissements déposent des actifs en dollars à la Fed (bons du Trésor américain, prêts hypothécaires...), lorsqu'ils lui demandent de l'argent, en garantie du prêt accordé par la banque centrale américaine.
La mesure prise par la Fed a bloqué des titres que les banques utilisent habituellement comme caution pour obtenir des dollars auprès d'autres établissements financiers (banques, fonds d'investissements). Accentuant le mouvement, les fonds monétaires américains, pourvoyeurs de dollars, ont durci leurs conditions de prêts aux banques européennes.
Certains parlent même de complot, arguant que les Etats-Unis, qui ont perdu leur triple A en août, ont intérêt à peser sur le cours de l'euro pour garder la suprématie du dollar. Ainsi Laurence Parisot, la présidente du Medef, a récemmlent évoqué récemment "un tam-tam très organisé" Outre-Atlantique.
Face aux signes de renchérissement du financement en dollars, la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) a ouvert les vannes. Elle a annoncé le 15 septembre qu'avec l'aide d'autres banques centrales - Fed, Banque d'Angleterre, Banque du Japon et Banque nationale suisse qui lui prêteront des dollars -, elle accorderait, àpartir du mois d'octobre, des prêts à trois mois en billet vert, en contrepartie d'actifs en euros, non pas en dollars.
Cette mesure vient compléter un financement hebdomadaire en devise américaine accordé par la BCE, auquel les banques ont accès depuis mai 2010. Celui-ci n'a jusqu'à présent servi que trois fois depuis mi-août. Les banques hésitent en effet àsolliciter les instituts d'émission, de peur d'être stigmatisées comme traversant une crise de liquidités.
Il s'était passé la même chose en en 2007 lors de la crise des "subprimes" et en 2008, au moment de la faillite de Lehman Brothers. Les établissements n'osaient pas se présenter au guichet d'urgence de la Fed, celle-ci assimilant cette démarche à de la mauvaise gestion. Pour contourner le problème, "les banques françaises pourraient faire une démarche collective", confie une source bancaire.
Le changement des conditions de prêts - plus chers et plus courts - a touché certaines de leurs activités, par ailleurs déjà pénalisées par la future réglementation dite de Bâle 3. La Société générale et BNP Paribas ont prévu de réduire leur dépendance au dollar, essentiellement dans leurs départements de financement et d'investissement.
Dans ce contexte, elles comptent en priorité s'attaquer aux activités de prêts qu'elles doivent financer en dollar, alors que leurs dépôts en billet vert étant insuffisants : les exportations d'avions, les flottes de bateaux, les projets d'infrastructure, le commerce international ou encore l'immobilier commercial aux Etats-Unis.
Les répercussions se font déjà sentir dans l'industrie aéronautique dont les banques françaises sont d'importants pourvoyeurs de fonds. Les marchés redoutent que les compagnies aériennes, en mal de crédits, annulent des commandes. ce qui a fait chuter en Bourse EADS, la maison mère d'Airbus, de 7,91 % jeudi 22 septembre.
"Les compagnies aériennes vont aller chercher les dollars là où ils se trouvent : aux Etats-Unis ou en Chine" relativise un expert du secteur Le directeur financier d'EADS, Hans -Peter Ring, précisait jeudi que bon nombre de nouvelles banques, notamment asiatiques, étaient arrivées sur le marché du financement d'avions.
"C'est finalement plus une mauvaise nouvelle pour les banques françaises que pour le secteur aéronautique", expliquait un analyste financier "car elles se voient exclues d'un marché juteux dont elles se sont faits une spécialité".



- Grèce : Les quinze commandements de la "troïka"


Certaines des mesures de la "troïka" ont été intégrées dans le nouveau plan de rigueur présenté, le 21 septembre. D'autres pourraient figurer dans le projet de budget 2012, en cours de préparation.
GRÈCE, CORRESPONDANCE - Le ministère des finances a envoyé, dimanche 18 septembre, dans un courriel à tous les ministères, une liste de quinze mesures àmettre en oeuvre d'urgence, sur l'insistance de la "troïka", les représentants du Fonds monétaire international (FMI), de la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) et de la Commission européenne. Certaines ont été intégrées dans le nouveau plan de rigueur présenté, le 21 septembre. D'autres pourraient figurer dans le projet de budget 2012, en cours de préparation.
Voici ce que la presse grecque a baptisé les "quinze commandements de la troïka" :
Coupes dans les effectifs – saisonniers ou fixes – dans toutes les administrations, y compris les enseignants.
_ Etendre le chômage technique à l'ensemble du secteur public et application immédiate du système.
_ Egalisation de la taxe sur le fuel domestique sur celle du gas-oil.
_ Permettre la retenue sur salaire de l'impôt de solidarité destiné à financer les caisses de chômage.
_ Baisse des retraites pour les marins et les anciens employés de l'opérateur téléphonique OTE.
_ Suppression des subventions à la Poste pour la distribution de la presse.
_ Nouveau cadre juridique dans le secteur public pour réduire les indemnités de départ et les heures supplémentaires.
_ Gel des retraites primaires et complémentaires jusqu'en 2015.
_ Augmentation des amendes pour les constructions illégales.
_ Fusion ou fermeture de 35 agences d'Etat.
_ Fusion ou fermeture de 10 autres structures: agence nationale de la jeunesse, organisme de télévision publique, société de l'immobilier public, société des biens immobiliers touristique, etc.
_ Recensement des biens mobiliers et immobiliers sous le contrôle de l'Etat.
_ Recenser tous les avantages sociaux et prestations de santé; signature de négociations collectives dans 16 hôpitaux privés ; signature de contrats entre hôpitaux privés et publics pour la locations de lits.
_ Nouvelle loi pour réduire les retraites agricoles.
_ Réduire les prix des médicaments en passant des accords avec les laboratoires pharmaceutiques.


- We’re In A Global Recession: Why This Crash Should Have Come Sooner


Margaret Bogenrief - A confession: I’m too excited, nervous, and agitated to start this post cleverly, so let's just get to the economic heart of things.
As anyone with a financial pulse knows, yesterday specifically and this week generally marks, well, the beginning of the end. The end of geo-political economic optimism, hope, and confidence. And, at least for me, this moment could not have come soon enough.
Bloomberg outlines the financial carnage in Global Stocks Drop 20% Into Bear Market as Debt Crisis Outweighs Profits: “Stocks fell, pushing the MSCI All- Country World Index of 45 nations into a bear market for the first time in more than two years, after the worsening European debt crisis and threat of a U.S. recession erased more than $10 trillion from equities since May.”
Well, financial world, welcome to the show. Those of us who have been paying attention have been not-so-patiently waiting for you.
What, I may ask, took you so long?
As the economic world now turns its worried eye to the “traditional” financial experts, commentators, and reporters, those of us who saw this coming from a financial mile away feel the need to take you all to task. Honestly, financial markets, what the f#ck did you think was going to happen this year? Not just this year, but throughout the past 3; you know, since 2008, when this global recession really started? Who and/or what did you think was going to spark any kind of growth to get us out of this financial disaster? You HAVE read at least one basic primer on economics, right?
Let’s take a look at this from a rational, non-system approach (you know, one that actually understand the intersection of policy, economics, and finance): between the past 10 to 30 years (depending on which country/region you’re looking at), both the United States and Europe enjoyed tremendous debt-fueled growth, which inevitably led to unprecedented economic development and prosperity in the developed world. And while this debt-fueled growth created a modern-day financial fairytale, it masked underlying fissures within the1st world debt infrastructure that continued to grow even as world headlines breathlessly touted “Economic Sunshine And Lollipops For All!” These fissures have since split permanently, taking with them much of the debt-fueled growth of previous decades. In short, we’re all screwed.
Where my intellectual frustration lies, however, is in how LONG it’s taken the financial powers-that-be to understand and react to the fundamentals driving this past week’s crash. While it’s all well-and-good that Pimco’s Mohamed El-Erian now warns the world of an impending “double-dip” recession, I’d argue we’ve been, with a few financial exceptions and explanations, in a recession since 2008. Sure, the markets have exhibited fits and starts of growth and development, but ultimately, the world economy has, at least for now, semi-permanently contracted, starting with the initial shrinkage that really started in 2008.
In short, the financial world – with its inherent optimism, ignorance, and intellectual blindness - has screwed us again. By failing to understand that governments and policy-makers have only so many economic magic bullets (side-note: interesting how desperate Wall Street – that bastion of “Hands Off My Pocketbook!” – now seems in begging and pleading Daddy Government to rescue it from its own mistakes), players in the financial markets have driven us deeper into this not-impending-anymore! global recession. By failing to acknowledge the obvious – there’s only so much growth that comes from debt and, well, bill-callers eventually always come calling – the world’s financial-powers-that-be have continued spending, investing, and trading as if something – anything! – could and would come along at any financial moment and rescue us from our own sloth and greed. All this week’s market meltdown showed us is, really, is what’s been true all along: we’re economically screwed. And will be for years to come.
And, of course, a final note to the markets: my predictive voice may be hoarse, tired, and worn-out, but here goes again. GREECE IS SET TO DEFAULT. There are NO economic bullets in the European Union’s policy-making gun that can make up for the math of this debt-issue. Even more interestingly? It’s possible, and likely, that Ireland will start calling the EU to task about the strict terms of the Irish plan, post-Greek default. The European Union will, most likely, splinter, re-form, and take on a newer, more-efficient financial face.
But then again, you guys DO know best…right?






- [Rescuing the Euro
_ The Fatal Mistakes of Berlin's Bailout Strategy
_ Are Chancellor Merkel and Finance Minister Schäuble leading Germany down the wrong path?->http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,788082,00.html]


Are Chancellor Merkel and Finance Minister Schäuble leading Germany down the wrong path?
The German parliament is set to approve the expansion of the enormous euro rescue package next week. But this will be a fatal mistake. There is only one reasonable solution to Europe's debt crisis -- and it also happens to be much cheaper.
Info
It was no surprise that Standard & Poor's downgraded Italy's credit rating this week. The decision made Europe's debt strategy only slightly less credible. But does the government in Berlin still believe the European debt crisis can be solved with ever bigger rescue packages?
Seldom have German politicians seemed as directionless as they do in the euro crisis. Never before has Berlin made such serious and costly mistakes, racking up as many errors as they did with their grand plans for Europe.
They want to establish the unity of the continent -- but are nurturing fear and anger in donor and recipient countries alike. They want to sustain the homogenous single currency area -- but are doing everything possible to deepen the divide in the euro zone. They want to safeguard Germany's competitive edge -- but are undermining its future financial viability with unimaginable burdens.
The first mistake begins with the terminology. The talk is and always has been of a "euro crisis." The chancellor has even made the nonsensical claim that "if the euro fails, Europe fails." It is actually possible to talk a currency into crisis and ruin.
Where, pray tell, is this supposed euro crisis? It seems that many politicians, journalists and researchers no longer distinguish between federal budgets and the money supply through issuing banks. What we are seeing is a crushing sovereign debt crisis, not a currency crisis. The intrinsic value of the euro -- despite the talk about the dangers of massive inflation -- is as stable as that of many other currencies.
The external value naturally suffers from the never-ending chatter about a crisis, though. Some EU investors have fled in panic to the supposed safety of Switzerland, thus providing for a depreciation of the euro against the Swiss franc. But compared to the dollar, still the dominant world currency, the exchange rate has remained stable. Measured in terms of purchasing power, the euro is even overvalued against the US currency.
Acts of Desperation
We are witnessing a debacle of state debt accumulation. And this is not only a European phenomenon, but a global one. For many years, one could only wonder at how private individuals and financial institutions were willing to entrust their money to governments whose debts had long been considered non-refundable. In this debt world, finance ministers were celebrated when the new debt they took on was less than the previous year. That the total debt would continue to rise was, and is, self-evident.
Now the investors -- and not sinister "speculators" -- are ready to prepare an end to this mismanagement by refusing further credit. Rightly so. We should thank them for this insight, even if it has come rather late.
But what are the self-annointed euro rescuers in the central governments doing?Mistake number two: Those countries which still enjoy good ratings think they need to rescue those with bad credit through fresh lending. They are thus violating the founding treaty of the euro zone, which excludes such aid.
So-called stability facilities are being contrived to communitarize the new debt. Then the European Central Bank jumps in. Likewise, in gross contract violations, it buys government bonds and in doing so damages its most important asset --credibility.
And what results from these desperate acts, which German politicians are actively involved with, or at least accept with a shrug?
In the case of a fundamentally competitive Ireland, they essentially want to build a bridge to better times. But with Portugal, this is already doubtful. And in the case of Greece, according to all financial calculations, it is impossible for the economically moribund country to escape bankruptcy, even with a mixture of new debt and crushing reforms. Meanwhile no one in charge wants to discuss what would happen if investors decide to shun Italy, which is at even greater risk.
Debt Haircut is the Solution
All this is supposedly being done to save the euro. Nonsense. It's not actually about the euro. Three years after the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank, it is to forestall a new banking crash which would supposedly have catastrophic, difficult to control consequences. A number of important financial institutions in Europe, particularly in France, have accumulated large amounts of Greek, Italian and Portuguese bonds. And not all of them have written them off at their actual value.
Those in power repeatedly tell us there is no alternative for the bailouts when it comes to securing the euro (or, in actual fact, the financial institutions). Whether they really believe that, however, is uncertain.
Mistake number three: Of course, there is at least one other possibility. One version, which German bankers talked about more than a year ago, is urgently being recommended by researchers. It has now, indirectly, been taken up by the new head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde and by German Economics Minister Philipp (FPD). But it has been rejected by the government's largest party, Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats, and the main opposition parties, the center-left Social Democrats and the Greens. In fact, the idea has almost become a taboo.
The solution is a so-called debt haircut, or in the words of the much malignedRösler , an "orderly bankruptcy." The creditors who have frivolously given Greece or other states credit up to the point of an actual declaration of bankruptcy would lose so much money that the remaining losses for the debtor country would actually be manageable.
Experts estimate that this debt haircut would need to involve between 30 and 50 percent of debt, depending on the country. The second rescue plan for Greece from the summer provides a waiver of only 20 percent, but it is voluntary and so far only 75 percent of financial institutions have agreed to it.
Banking Crash Would be Easily Manageable
A haircut which mirrors the debtor's real ability to meet financial obligations could, of course, leave some banks in trouble and threaten a new banking crash. But this problem could be easier to control than one outrageously expensive bailout after another. Above all, this solution would be cheaper for the countries; indeed, the burden would be borne by the lenders.
Banks which, thanks to the stress test, are known to be in a precarious position, would have to be weatherproofed before the debt haircut with fresh capital. This "recapitalization" must take place through the state because private investors would certainly not rush to take on such a risk. In return, governments would be shareholders in the banks.
To their credit, German economists Harald Hau and Bernd Lucke have calculated what it would cost to make German and European banks crisis-proof through additional capital. Their findings: German banks would need €20 billion ($27 billion) to cope; the German contribution for banks in Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain would be €12 billion ($16 billion).
That makes a total of €32 billion ($43 billion), or just 15 percent of the absurd €211 billion ($285 billion) that Germany has to guarantee in the future, which still won't be enough.
Largest Projects of the Postwar Period
The money which would be accrued by the banks would not be lost -- as opposed to a large portion of the state guarantees. The donors would be given shares in the banks, that is to say monetary value entitlements. According to similar situations in the past, these would likely increase in value during the course of an economic recovery and could then be sold later.
Of course, this solution does not relieve the indebted countries of the task of cleaning up their public finances and making their economies competitive. But without the heavy burden of unpayable debts, they would certainly be in a better position to balance their budgets and reinvigorate the private sector than they are now.
But Berlin's crisis managers Angela Merkel and Wolfgang Schäuble have taken up neither the economists' calculations nor the suggestions of IMF boss Lagarde. They remain undeterred in loading Germany with unprecedented, gigantic financial guarantee obligations, from which solid demands will definitely emerge. This will certainly lead to either tax increases or spending cuts -- or both.
It's no way encourage the European idea. A united Europe and the euro are the most important political projects of the postwar period. It would be a disaster if they were damaged by taking the wrong course of action.