La citation du jour :
" Le capitalisme est devenu le jouet d'une infime minorité de gens riches, cupides et égoïstes, et le fossé qui existe déjà entre les très riches et 99 % des Américains est en train de se creuser encore davantage. L'Amérique est en train de perdre la partie, et une lutte des classes de l'ampleur du "Printemps arabe" est sur le point d'éclater, nourrie par la colère des jeunes chômeurs devant les inégalités sociales et économiques dont ils sont les victimes." (Trad.). Paul B. Farrell, chroniqueur régulier sur le site MarketWatch du Wall Street Journal, 30 août 2011
- Crise financière au Canada - Le secret entoure l'aide accordée aux banques
Si la transparence est à l'ordre du jour à Washington, où la Fed a récemment commencé à dévoiler les noms des bénéficiaires de son programme de soutien financier pendant la crise, le contribuable d'ici ne connaîtra pas de sitôt le montant que sa banque a emprunté aux autorités canadiennes dans le cadre de l'aide mise sur pied à l'automne 2008.
Les banques canadiennes ont emprunté 110 milliards. Mais invitées par Le Devoir à révéler l'ampleur des montants prêtés aux établissements financiers individuels en 2008 et 2009 pour graisser les rouages du système, la Banque du Canada, la Société canadienne d'hypothèques et de logement (SCHL) et les grandes banques refusent systématiquement de ventiler les sommes consenties.
- Global Recession Likely, Depression Possible: Economist
By: Katy Barnato - Global recession in 2012 is "65 to 75 percent certain" and could deteriorate into a lengthy depression, Roger Nightingale, economist and strategist at RDN Associates, told CNBC.
The peak rate of growth for the world's economy occurred more than 12 months ago and "it carries on going down," Nightingale said. "We are probably going into negative territory around spring of next year; it is not for certain, but that is the most likely scenario. I would say the recession is 65 percent, 75 percent certain.”
The economist warned that should recession kick in, the global economy might be too weak to generate any GDP growth for years, or even decades.
“When the downturn ends, and when the upturn begins, will it be powerful enough to take us into some sort of growth again? Or are we going to find ourselves in a protracted depression-type scenario?" he wondered.
“Seven years would be a very short depression; depressions last a lot longer than that. I would be extremely pleased if it were to only last seven years. In Japan’s case, it lasted 20 years,” he said.
Nightingale added that the US economy has “some big pluses”, but was uncertain it was strong enough to steer the world out of a recession.
“America is very competitive at the moment, and she has a lot of advantages in finance, agriculture and many other areas. There are some big pluses in the American situation, and they are causing some growth. Whether they are going to be big enough to keep the thing going, and to bail out the rest of the world, is another issue,” he said.
But Nightingale said that Europe is in, “absolutely desperate trouble”. He warned that BRIC nations China and India might be heading in a “somewhat similar way”.
The strategist also raised concerns about the German 'strong man of Europe', saying its industrial production figures would plummet with Japan’s recovery from the tsunami.
“Germany is the major beneficiary of the Japanese tsunami, and as the Japanese come back on stream and production increases again, they will take their markets back from the Germans," Nightingale said.
"Watch out very carefully for industrial production numbers falling quite significantly, perhaps from autumn of this year through to spring of next year,” he added.
- Plus de 8 millions de pauvres en France
Par LIBÉRATION.FR - A Paris, en août 2011. (Yves Herman / Reuters)
L'enquête publiée aujourd'hui par l'Insee sur les niveaux de vie vient confirmer ce que les associations d'aides aux démunis constatent au quotidien. Le nombre de personnes en grande difficulté ne cesse de progresser, conséquence directe de la crise économique.
En 2009, 13,5% de la population étaient considérés comme pauvres, c'est-à-dire vivant avec moins de 954 euros par mois (le seuil de pauvreté), contre 13% en 2008, détaille l'Institut de la statistique dans l'étude «Niveaux de vie en 2009».
2009 est «vraiment la première année pleine où se ressentent les effets de la crise» amorcée en 2008, a commenté auprès de l'AFP Jean-Louis Lhéritier, chef du département «Ressources et conditions de vie des ménages» à l'Insee.
--> L'intégralité de l'étude à retrouver sur le site de l'Insee, ici.
Version résumé, voici les principaux points de l'étude:
_ La crise touche tous les ménages...
En 2009, la moitié des Français vivait avec moins de 19.080 euros par an, soit 1.590 euros par mois). Il s'agit là de ce qu'on appelle le niveau de vie médian. Il se calcule en divisant les revenus du ménage par le nombre de personnes qui le composent mais en tenant compte des économies d'échelle (un seul réfrigérateur...) et du fait que les enfants consomment moins que les adultes. Cette notion, qui permet de comparer des ménages de taille différente, ne doit pas être confondue avec le revenu ou le salaire.
Le niveau de vie médian enregistre une légère hausse de 0,4% par rapport à 2008. Cette progression reste très limitée, après une augmentation de 1,7% entre 2007 et 2008.
... Mais surtout les plus modestes
Si la crise a «touché tous les ménages, elle a davantage affecté les plus modestes», indique Jean-Louis Lhéritier, ce qui creuse encore les inégalités.
Le nombre de personnes vivant sous le seuil de pauvreté (avec moins de 954 euros par mois) atteint 13,5 % en 2009. 8,2 millions de personnes vivent en dessous de ce seuil en 2009, dont la moitié vivent avec moins de 773 euros par mois.
En 2009, le niveau de vie des 10 % des personnes les plus modestes est inférieur à 10 410 euros annuels, en baisse de 1,1 % par rapport à 2008. Pire, «alors que l'évolution moyenne annuelle relevée entre 2005 et 2008 pour chacun des quatre premiers déciles était d'environ +2%, la tendance s'inverse entre 2008 et 2009: en euros constants, les quatre premiers déciles diminuent», poursuit l'étude.
- L'oncle Paul en doit une à Sarko : Total en Libye en septembre
Reuters Mis à jour le 30/08/2011 à 19:17 | publié le 30/08/2011 à 19:17
Le groupe Total participera à une mission de sociétés françaises organisée le mois prochain en Libye dans le but de faire un bilan de la situation sur le terrain, a dit mardi le responsable de la Chambre de commerce franco-libyenne. En juin et en juillet, Total figurait déjà parmi les sociétés françaises qui s'étaient rendues à Benghazi dans le but d'établir le contact avec le Conseil national de transition libyen (CNT) avec l'appui du gouvernement français.
"Nous n'en sommes pas au stade de la signature de contrats mais de comprendre comment le CNT gère cette crise et quelles sont les mesures urgentes dont il a besoin pour redémarrer la machine pétrolière qui rapporte 95% des revenus du pays, afin qu'elle puisse reprendre rapidement", a déclaré à Reuters Michel Casals, responsable de la Chambre de commerce franco-libyenne. Des experts régionaux issus d'autres grands groupes commeAlstom, EADS, Thales ou encore Alcatel Lucent prendront part à cette mission, ainsi que des représentants de sociétés plus petites du secteur hospitalier ou pétrolier.
Total, qui ferait partie des sociétés qui bénéficieraient le plus d'un retour à une situation stable après six mois de guerre civile dans la mesure, n'a pas souhaité commenter cette mission. Le groupe a déclaré qu'il suivait la situation avec attention, dans le but de savoir quand ses activités pourraient redémarrer en Libye. Les nouvelles autorités libyennes ont promis de favoriser les pays qui ont participé à la chute de Mouammar Kadhafi et la France a été à la pointe de l'intervention militaire.
Le Medef et la Chambre de commerce franco-libyenne organiseront le 6 septembre à Paris une conférence en vue de réunir toutes les entreprises françaises opérant en Libye et de discuter des projets du CNT, a également dit Michel Casals, précisant que le ministre français des Finances ainsi que des représentants du CNT seraient présents. Total fait partie des groupes pétroliers qui ont le plus d'investissements en Libye, aux cotés du britannique BP et du russe Gazprom.
- Les banques encore sous le feu des critiques
Le Conseil des standards comptables internationaux estime que les montants des provisions sur les actifs grecs de certaines banques sont sous-évalués, selon le Financial Times. BNP Paribas et CNP Assurances sont visées.
Nouvel avertissement sur le front des valeurs bancaires européennes. Après Christine Lagarde, c'est au tour du Conseil des standards comptables internationaux (IASB) de jeter de l'huile sur le feu. L'institut estime en effet que certaines banques et certains assureurs du vieux continent ont sous-estimé leurs pertes liées à la dette grecque, selon une lettre envoyée par l'IASB aux régulateurs européens et consultée par le Financial Times.
Ainsi, le comité basé à Londres estime que certains établissements auraient dû enregistrer des pertes plus importantes sur leurs obligations grecques lors de la publication de leurs derniers résultats. Selon le quotidien britannique, les établissements BNP Paribas et CNP Assurances sont directement en ligne de mire, même si l'IASB ne cite aucun groupe nommément. Les deux établissements ont en effet passé des décotes de 21% sur leurs actifs grecs. Or l'IASB estime que la décote exigée par le marché est bien supérieure à ce chiffre. À ce titre, d'autres établissements comme la Royal Bank of Scotland se sont montrés plus prudents en appliquant des dévaluations de l'ordre de 50%.
- [It’s 2008 All Over Again /
The Eurozone is Headed for a Crash->http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/08/29/the-eurozone-is-headed-for-a-crash/]
by MIKE WHITNEY - Bank funding costs are rising, liquidity is being choked off, and interbank lending has started to stall. A full-blown crisis can still be averted, but leaders will have to knuckle down and resolve the political issues fast. Otherwise the 17-member monetary union will fracture and the euro will be kaput. Here’s a clip from the Wall Street Journal:
“Commercial banks boosted their reliance on the European Central Bank, borrowing €2.82 billion ($4.07 billion) from an emergency lending facility on Tuesday … While the amount of borrowing is tiny … the increase from €555 million a day earlier, nonetheless suggest that some lenders are struggling to borrow from traditional funding sources.”(“Europe Banks Lean More on Emergency Funding”, Wall Street Journal)
Sure, it’s a pittance compared to the trillions floating around in the EU banking system, but the pattern is the same as it was in 2007 when the troubles began at French bank PNB Paribas. Back then, the problems seemed small, too, but things got out of hand quick. Over the next year, trillions in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were downgraded, forcing bigger and bigger losses on bondholders, many of which were the nation’s largest banks. The bloodletting persisted until September 2008, when Lehman Brothers imploded and the financial system went into cardiac arrest. The Fed rushed to Wall Street’s rescue with $12 trillion in loans and other guarantees in hand just to keep the patient from croaking on the Emergency Room floor. Now it looks like history is repeating itself.
As the collateral the banks hold (mainly foreign sovereign bonds) continues to lose value, the banks will come under greater pressure, making funding more costly and harder to get. In fact, the mad-scramble for short-term funding has already begun. Banks are hoarding capital just as they did after the Crash of ’08, depositing larger and larger amounts in overnight accounts with the ECB in order to avoid lending to the other banks. All of this is taking a toll on consumer and household lending which will inevitably push eurozone GDP further into the red. The negative feedback loop into the real economy will send unemployment higher and further crimp business investment. This is from Businessweek:
“Despite the ECB’s best efforts, some of Europe’s banks may be inching toward insolvency. The cost of insuring the bonds of 25 European banks and insurers set a record high on Aug. 24 of 257 basis points, higher than the 149 basis-point spike when Lehman Brothers collapsed in the fall of 2008, according to the Markit iTraxx Financial Index of credit default swaps.
The banks aren’t required to mark down most of their holdings of government debt to market prices. If they did, some would be forced to default or seek a bailout.” (“How Long Can the ECB Prop Up Europe’s Sick Banks?”, Businessweek)
Are you kidding me? The banks are sitting on a mountain of garbage paper and EU regulators haven’t even forced them to write down the losses. Is it any wonder why public confidence is at all-time lows?
U.S. money funds have been gradually reducing their exposure to EU banks due to worries about their collateral, much of which is bonds from Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Greece (PIIGS). Eventually, these bonds will be crushed by downgrades and the banks will have to pony-up for the losses. That’ll be the swan song for some of Europe’s big name banks that are gravely undercapitalized. Of course, there could be a multi-trillion dollar bailout like there was in the US, but it’s hard to imagine how the ECB could slip that by Germany. After all, Germany has already rejected eurobonds; so why would they support the more offensive idea of bank bailouts? It just doesn’t add up.
And, in case there’s any doubt about German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s contempt for eurobonds; here’s what she said on Tuesday:
“At this time — we’re in a dramatic crisis — euro bonds are precisely the wrong answer…They lead us into a debt union, not a stability union. Each country has to take its own steps to reduce its debt.”
Then she added this corker: “We are in no rush whatsoever to solve the crisis in Europe. We will not be swayed by market crashes or panics.” That doesn’t sound like someone who appreciates the urgency of the moment. It sounds like someone who wants to teach the market “who’s boss”.
But Merkel’s bravado doesn’t change the fact that the EU bank funding system is on the fritz; liquidity is drying up, stress gauges are blinking red, and the banks are too scared to lend to each other. It just demonstrates the obtuseness of grandstanding politicians.
And, keep in mind that–while QE2 helped many of the European banks stockpile “rainy day” reserves in the US–those piles are beginning to dwindle as investors wise-up and head for the exits. They’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t end well.
Here’s an excerpt from a report by Nomura indicating how fast liquidity is draining from the system:
“The USD cash buffer has been falling according to FED data from 889 billions USD on July 20 to 758 billions USD on August 3….In fact, according to the same report, there was a notable decline of 131 billions USD in two weeks, clearly a trend to watch…. (“Credit Terminal Velocity”, Macronomics, Pragmatic Capitalism)
So, no, we’re not at the panic-phase yet, but we’re getting closer by the day. And as the run on the money markets continues, more banks will have to go cup in hand to the ECB seeking loans to stay afloat. At the same time, ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet will have to step up his sovereign debt purchasing program to prop up plunging bond prices to help teetering Greece and Co. stay upright. Otherwise, someone’s going to go belly-up and take down a good portion of the EU financial system along with them.
And that Doomsday Scenario seems to be on the mind of central bankers at the ECB, too. According to CNBC: “The Sunday Times in the UK reported that policy makers in Brussels are drawing up radical plans to offer central guarantees over certain types of debt issued by banks. The move is reported to be a direct response to the sharp fall in U.S. funding for Europe’s banks. If true, this is clearly something the boss of the ECB can’t be discussing in public….” (“Trichet Gives Master Class in Saying Nothing”, CNBC)
Indeed, how can one publicly discuss their intention to disregard the democratic process altogether, overstep their mandate, and underwrite hundreds of billions in garbage bonds held by thieving bankers? That’s hardly the kind of policy that would elicit a riotous display of support from the people.
So, it’s a mess, and it’s going to get a whole lot messier because EU banks need to roll over more than $4.5 trillion in the next two years and the funding flywheel is already gummed up. So, if there’s not a political solution to the trans-EU fiscal issues in the next few months, the eurozone is toast. When the credit markets start to groan, bad things can happen fast.
As of Sunday night, the interest rate on one-year Greek government debt is up to 59.8 percent.
- Long-Term Problem in Stocks: Citi CIO
By: Catherine Boyle - Slashing costs and trimming staff has not solved the problems of developed world companies, and this is why earnings are likely to fall, Richard Cookson, chief investment officer at Citi, told CNBC Tuesday.
Peter Dazeley | Photographer's Choice | Getty Images
"The corporate sector continues to simply slash costs rather than focus on top-line growth," he said. "If you carry on just cutting costs and cutting people, at some stage the growth will stop."
- [Italian Town Mints Own Money to Fight Austerity->www.principatodifilettino.com http://www.cnbc.com/id/44322945]
A small town in central Italy is trying to go independent and mint its own money in protest at government austerity cuts.
Filettino mayor Luca Sellari pictured on the town's currency
Filettino, set in rugged hill country around 100 km (65 miles) east of Rome, is rebelling against a proposal to merge the governments of towns with fewer than 1,000 inhabitants to save money.
Filettino has only around 550 people, but instead of merging with neighboring Trevi, mayor Luca Sellari is trying to go it alone and set up a "principality" along the lines of the famous republic of San Marino to the north.
He has started minting Filettino's own bank currency, the "Fiorito," with his photo on the back, which he says is already being used by the townsfolk.
"We aim to achieve real autonomy from Italy and we have the financial resources to do it," Sellari said in an interview on the town's
- Italy Pressured After Weak Demand at Bond Sale
Italy sold nearly 8 billion euros of government bonds on Tuesday in a keenly awaited auction that, despite recent ECB support, met relatively weak demand and threatened to re-ignite market pressure on the highly indebted country.
Lower-than-expected demand at the auction — seen as a key test of emergency steps taken to control the euro zone debt crisis— pushed Italian bond yields higher and sparked a rally in safe-haven German debt.
The rise in yields, which nonetheless stayed well below levels hit before the European Central Bank began buying Italian debt three weeks ago, raised questions about the sustainability of Rome's funding efforts and threw the focus on to a Spanish bond auction on Thursday.
Traders said the ECB stepped in after the auction to buy significant amounts of 10-year Italian debt, halting the rise.
"The results look a bit worse than the market was expecting, with the 10-year looking weak with a rather small bid cover ratio," said Credit Agricole rate strategist Peter Chatwell. "The market is likely to lose a bit of confidence from this auction until 10-year Italy stabilizes, which is in the ECB's hands."
- U.S. lenders making more subprime car loans: report
NEW YORK - Lenders are making more subprime auto loans again, reversing the cautious approach they adopted after the credit crisis, an industry research firm said on Tuesday.
The portion of car loans made to subprime borrowers rose to 40.8 percent in the second quarter from 37.2 percent a year earlier, according to Experian Automotive, a unit of credit bureau and research firm Experian Plc.
The data shows how keen lenders are to boost their loan books amid a sluggish U.S. economy. Car loans are seen by lenders as relatively safe, because they are collateralized and repossessing cars is easier than foreclosing on homes.
Average credit scores for borrowers declined and the average term for their loans extended by one month to 63 months on new cars and 59 months on used cars.
"We are continuing to see growth in subprime, both new and used, and loans are becoming looser," Melinda Zabritski, director of automotive credit for Experian said in an interview.
- [A 20-rule manifesto for New No-Growth Economics /
Commentary: Classical economics is fatally flawed->http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-20-rule-manifesto-for-new-no-growth-economics-2011-08-30?link=home_carousel ]
SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Yes, a New Economics. With new rules. Why? Classical economics is fatally flawed. So investors better learn the new rules that will win in the New Economy. Delay, deny, you’ll lose.
After the coming global collapse — the big wake-up call — classical economics will be exposed as a fraud sabotaging investors, destroying America.
Yes, new rules. Why? Because everything you know about economics is wrong. Everything. The old economics is a rigged game in a Wall Street casino. The cards are stacked in favor of the banks and their co-conspirators, political lobbyists, corporate CEOs and the Super Rich. The house always wins. You always lose. Worse, America is losing.
- Consumer confidence plunges, expectations dive
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer confidence plunged in August as expectations dived, with worsening views on future business conditions, jobs and income, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. The nonprofit organization said its consumer-confidence index fell to 44.5 in August - the lowest level since April 2009 -- from a slightly downwardly revised 59.2 in July. "A contributing factor may have been the debt ceiling discussions since the decline in confidence was well underway before the S&P downgrade," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's consumer research center, in a statement. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected an August reading of 51.9. Generally when the economy is growing at a good clip, confidence readings are at 90 and above. The expectations barometer tumbled to 51.9 in August - the lowest since April 2009 -- from 74.9 in July, while the present-situation gauge fell to 33.3 from 35.7
- Fed Remains Deeply Divided On More Easing: Minutes
Some Federal Reserve officials pushed in August for a more aggressive response to the economy's slowdown. They settled for a pledge to keep rates super-low for two more years and agreed to consider additional options at an extended meeting in September.
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