CHARLES SIROIS, one of Canada’s leading bankers, sees many things when he looks out over Montreal from his 38th-floor office: the densely packed buildings of Canada’s oldest financial district, the broad sweep of the St Lawrence river in the distance, and a province that he thinks has grown tired of debating whether it should separate from the rest of Canada. Until recently a supporter of Quebec’s ruling provincial Liberal party, Mr Sirois has reached across the French-speaking province’s political divide to found a new movement with François Legault, a former minister of the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ).
The aim of their Coalition pour l’avenir du Québec (Coalition for the future of Quebec) is to persuade Quebeckers to set aside the province’s central political question in order to concentrate on its more immediate problems of education, health care, the economy and preserving its distinct culture. This initiative strikes such a deep chord that were an election held today some polls indicate the Coalition would win a majority of seats even though it is not yet, and may never be, a formal party.
Quebec’s status has blighted Canadian politics for almost half a century. As recently as 1995 a referendum on independence was lost by barely a percentage point. Two out of five Quebeckers continue to tell pollsters they want separation. Yet if not dead, there are many signs that separatism has slumped into a deep coma. Mr Legault, who is 54, quit politics in 2009 to return to the private sector. “If I go back into politics, it won’t be to achieve the sovereignty of Quebec,” he says. “I don’t expect to work on the sovereignty of Quebec for the rest of my active life.”


Others have reached the same conclusion. Last year, Lucien Bouchard, a former PQ premier, said sovereignty was unattainable. In 2005 he formed part of a group dubbed les lucides (the lucid ones) that issued a manifesto calling attention to many of the same socioeconomic issues that the Coalition has targeted.
But the most startling sign of change was the near-extinction in last month’s federal election of the Bloc Québécois, set up amid separatist fervour in 1991 to fight for provincial independence from within the federal parliament. The Bloc went into the election with 47 seats and came out with just four; in its stead, the New Democrats (NDP), a left-of-centre federalist party, captured 59 of the province’s 75 seats.
Jack Layton, the NDP’s leader, promised to make French the language of work in federal institutions in the province and to require justices of Canada’s Supreme Court to be bilingual. Opponents dismissed these as cheap campaign shots, but they chimed with the mood in the province. Younger Quebeckers “are very much focused on language politics rather than sovereignty versus federalism,” says Christian Bourque of Leger Marketing, a pollster. The Coalition has taken a similar position.
The rout of the Bloc has swiftly been followed by the implosion of the PQ, which only months ago seemed set for a return to office in Quebec City. Six of its provincial legislators have broken away to sit as independents; open warfare has broken out between supporters of Pauline Marois, the party’s leader, who wants to soft-pedal independence, and those of Jacques Parizeau, one of her predecessors, who doesn’t.
In part the separatist movement has been a victim of its own success. When it began, many among the French-speaking majority felt that they were bossed around by an English-speaking elite. But changes brought in when nationalists first took power in the province in the 1960s helped Quebeckers gain control of business. Subsequent legislation has ensured that French is the language of business and of education in the province.
The Coalition mirrors an earlier moderate nationalist outfit, Action démocratique du Québec, which grabbed 31% of the vote in a provincial election in 2007 only to fade swiftly. The continued splintering of the PQ will help Jean Charest, the unpopular Liberal premier who has led the provincial government since 2003. Mr Charest, whose political obituary has been written many times, might even call an early election, rather than wait until 2013.
But for the moment it is the Coalition that has captured the public’s imagination. It plans to publish a manifesto by the end of the year. If any of the existing parties adopts its proposals, the movement will have achieved its aims, say the co-founders. If not, Mr Legault is prepared to form his own party to push the Coalition’s platform. At that point, the Coalition will have to make clear its position on Canada’s constitution, which Quebec has never signed. But the answer most Quebeckers seem to favour to that once-burning question is to ignore it.
CORRECTION: The original version of this story stated that Action démocratique du Québec had split off from the Parti Québécois. In fact it separated from the provincial Liberal Party. We regret the error.