This week, a Leger poll showed the separatist PQ leading Quebec's provincial Liberals by three points, 37%to 34%. The PQ leads the Liberals in every region of the province except Montreal. The reason for the PQ lead is not hard to fathom: 78% of respondents say they are dissatisfied with Jean Charest's government, a proportion that has been increasing since the beginning of the year.
The poll followed reports that an online petition calling for the Premier's resignation "crashed" this week, presumably due to the volume of angry voters eager to add their names. As of 5:30 Tuesday evening, the site had garnered almost 96,000 signatures -- and was climbing fast. The petition -- the work of the Mouvement Citoyen National du Quebec, a group formed in opposition to the Liberals' 2010 budget--gives three grounds for demanding that Mr. Charest step aside: the Premier's continuing refusal to launch a full inquiry into accusations of corruption in the province's construction industry, which are allegedly connected to Liberal party fundraising efforts; his refusal to call a moratorium on shale-gas exploration; and his refusal to "negotiate" the terms of the 2010 budget with the Quebec public.
The petition news broke at the same time as a demand by the province's Union of Quebec Municipalities for an inquiry into the construction controversy. The union expressed concerns about corruption tainting municipal offices across the province. Its voice joins a chorus of similar calls that have been building since last year, and which reached critical mass after former justice minister Marc Bellemare went public in March with his accusations that the Premier sanctioned "judge-buying" by Liberal donors from the construction industry.
Mr. Bellemare is on the receiving end of a lawsuit by Mr. Charest for defamation (and is also countersuing the Premier). He may soon have company: Mr. Charest is now threatening to sue Gerard Deltell, the leader of the ADQ party, for remarks made over the weekend in which Mr. Deltell referred to the Premier as a political "godfather."
That's strange, because politicians should know how to take a punch. But it follows a now-familiar pattern with Mr. Charest, who increasingly responds to setbacks with litigation and hysterical freak outs. Witness, for instance, his off-the-wall response to Maclean's magazine's expose of Quebec's reputation for corruption -- a reputation that Mr. Charest, thanks to his inquiry stonewalling, has done absolutely nothing to refute.
Mr. Charest has no one but himself to blame for his troubles. He has had ample opportunity to nip the construction scandal in the bud by calling an inquiry into the entire industry, as opposed to narrowly focusing on the judge-buying aspect. He had the chance to trim the size of the state since he came to power in 2003, which he promised and failed to do. He had the chance to shore up the province's finances and curb the growth of its massive debt, which hasn't happened either.
Mr. Charest's government is due to face voters in 2012. A Leger poll in August -- which found that 57% of respondents thought the Premier should resign -- also found that he currently has no clear successor. Save for Denis Coderre and Philippe Couillard, who garnered 11% and 10% support, respectively, all potential candidates polled in the single digits. The real winner was "I don't know," at 31%.
On the other hand, there is nothing inscribed in holy writ that says the Liberals must remain the primary federalist option on Quebec's provincial ballot. In early October, another public opinion survey found that a hypothetical centre-right party led by former PQ Minister Francois Legault would get 42% of the vote. Subsequently, the right-of-centre movement Reseau Liberte Quebec held a high-profile inaugural conference, and the ADQ has ramped up its rhetoric in the hopes of cashing in on public discontent.
With the departure of Gordon Campbell in B.C., the trouncing of Shawn Graham in New Brunswick and the general anti-incumbency mood prevailing in provincial politics these days, Mr. Charest would be wise to reflect on whether it is in his and his party's best interest that he run again. But whatever his choice, his legacy will be ill-served if he continues to resist calls for a construction-industry inquiry.
The facts about the construction industry will come out eventually. Does Mr. Charest, as he approaches the twilight of a long career, really want to be remembered as the man who used the last reserves of his political capital to block the truth for narrow partisan purposes?