Word that Parti Québécois leader Pauline Marois has come around to the idea of a sovereignty movement "estates-general" in the near future shouldn't be worrisome for federalists. If anything, it should be viewed as welcome news for the Canadian cause.
The term estates-general is a pretentious borrowing from pre-revolutionary France, when such a gathering brought together representatives of what were deemed the nation's three estates - the first being the clergy, the second the nobility and the third the common folk. Its usage here is also something of a perversion. Although the French version was inclusive of all French society, the Québécois variety would be limited to committed sovereignists, an increasingly shrinking minority of the provincial population.
One similarity between the two is that there are deep and largely irreconcilable divisions between the estates-general component parties. In France, the interests of the nobility and commoners were diametrically opposed, which limited its effectiveness. In Quebec, the sovereignty movement has split into so many divergent factions it's getting hard to keep track without a scorecard. They range from the centrist PQ to the hard-left Québec solidaire to the streetfighting Réseau de résistance du Québécois - with variations in between, such as Intellectuels pour la souverainté, the Parti indépendantiste, the SPQ Libre and the newly minted Nouveau Mouvement pour le Québec - differentiated by degrees of radicalism.
The purpose of the estates-general, which may come about as early as this fall, would be to chart a more muscular drive for Quebec independence than what the movement's establishment party, the PQ, proposed at its convention this spring, and that has lately been subjected to increasing denunciation from within the greater sovereigntist ranks as pathetically feeble.
However, after going on half a century of the sovereignty movement failing to achieve its objective, it is hard to imagine any effective new idea emerging from any faction that might move sovereignty from the realm of dreams to reality.
It is hard to imagine a more realistic plan than the one put forward by Marois, which is to leave the timing of any future sovereignty referendum up in the air while pressing increasingly for concessions from Ottawa. The inevitable refusal of those concessions would serve to heighten sovereignist sympathies, possibly to a point where another referendum would have a chance of getting a majority Yes vote.
Sovereignty hardliners, who have been making life miserable for Marois and have cast her leadership in high jeopardy, propose to press ahead with a referendum at the earliest possible date, or dispense with a referendum altogether in the event the PQ wins power in the next provincial election.
PQ MNA Bernard Drainville's suggestion for a "popular referendum initiative," which would involve getting people to sign a petition calling for a third referendum even before the next election, at least has the cachet of novelty. But his assertion that once a certain number of people sign on, say 850,000 or so, the government would be obliged to call a referendum is arrant nonsense.
Meanwhile, the proposal to declare independence unilaterally on the strength of a PQ election victory, without necessarily a majority of the popular vote, is old hat and has failed before. Both propositions are also fundamentally undemocratic.
The one thing that the in-a-hurry sovereignists won't acknowledge is that the option is steadily fading in popularity among Quebecers, no matter how it is put or by whom.
What they don't seem to realize, though it was amply demonstrated in this spring's federal campaign that saw the collapse of the Bloc Québécois, is that the harder they push for another referendum or a hard break with Canada, the less Quebecers will be inclined to vote for a sovereignist party.
As such, the estates-general looks to be shaping up as more of a bloodletting among the sovereignist factions than a reconciliation and renewal of purpose.
If any new plan emerges, it will probably be more unpalatable to the general electorate than the present PQ platform.
Federalists should look forward to the exercise, while the actual participants should beware.